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Crude oil prices retained gains into Asia on this morning as geopolitical tensions again become a focus.

Technical selling pressure has considerably eased since the beginning of this week. Still, market fundamentals have increasingly weighed on oil futures since then. That is why oil futures at ICE and NYMEX already tested their downward potential on Thursday morning breaching short-term supports. The IEA's monthly energy report confirmed the bearish cues the EIA's and the OPEC's reports had provided earlier in the week. This didn't really come as a surprise but still added to selling pressure. In the early afternoon, Brent thus dropped to a 2-year-low losing approximately 4.1% compared to the level it had at the beginning of Monday's session. Selling pressure slowly decreased then as fundamental news raised new insecurity. The EU decided to put into effect the new sanctions against Russia already this Friday and Russia warned the USA of the planned actions regarding (Iraq and) Syria. We had already stressed on Thursday morning that investors might cover their short positions in the course of the day as the market is clearly oversold and oil futures had sharply declined. During this decline, traders raised their short positions. On Thursday afternoon, they cut these short positions again, taking some profits. This was also prompted by the imminent expiry of the Brent front month contract (Monday). Traders thus tended to cut their riskier positions in the front month contract rolling them to contracts with a later delivery date. Consequently, Brent futures with a sooner delivery settled with small gains yesterday, whereas futures with a later delivery where weighed down by the adjustment of short positions. At the end of the day particularly WTI gained ground on spreadbets. Brent and Gasoil settled near the levels the had started the day with.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 833.00 USD on Thursday, this is -2.25 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 99,800 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

Whilst the technical constellation was bearish at the beginning of this week, its bias has meanwhile turned. Given the buying signals at ICE and NYMEX, it can be interpreted as slightly bullish. The lines of the stochastic indicator have crossed at the Brent, the Gasoil and the WTI chart. The oversold situation on the market favors upward moves but the long-term downtrends are still intact. These are also providing some upward slack market players might seize to cover their short positions. The Gasoil contract needs to surpass its short-term resistances at 839.00 and 841.00 USD in order to have more upward potential. If it does so, technical buying orders might be generated. Since the RSI is still below 30% at the Brent and the Gasoil chart, not confirming the buying signals of the stochastic indicator yet, we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bullish.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: Oil futures edged lower this morning, keeping track of yesterday's losses. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Market players are now eying the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep focusing on the situation in Ukraine, Iraq and Libya and today's economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-9)
380cst $568
180cst $664
MGO $941

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 12-9)
380cst $574
180cst $662
MGO $936

Singapore (delivered indications 12-9)

WTI is gaining with +$2.00 Singapore paper is down with -$1.05 for 180cst with -$1.00 for 380cst for Sep, and down for Oct 180 cst -$0.75 and 380cst is gaining with +$0.25 with MGO contracts Sep losing with -$0.98 and in Oct gaining with +$0.98. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$1.84, 380cst with -$2.66 and MGO with -$1.63.

The Singapore fuel oil prices softened slightly assessed app. -$2.0 down during the Platts window. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a slight build of 0.52 mbbl to 17.90 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were ranging between +$9.0 to +$11.0 above cargo prices.

380cst $576
180cst $586
MGO $830

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-9)

380cst $603
180cst $635
MGO $982

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Please be advised we have decided to dispense with 180cst RME180 indications either for HS or LS as part of our daily report for Rotterdam to clients. The reason being prices are so dependent on volume and dates that putting a figure to it is highly counter-productive and serves only to give false expectations to the customer. Avails are so limited these days and also premiums are charged for smaller quantities (due to the size of the tank required to be reserved for the blend) that it can really effect prices.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $549
(1.0 %) : $560
MGO 0.1%S: $818