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Crude oil futures declined this morning, after data showed that China's exports rose more than forecast in August while imports fell unexpectedly, underlining concerns over the health of the world's second largest economy.

Futures at ICE and NYMEX sightly tended to the upside on Friday morning. There was some insecurity among market players as to whether there would really be a ceasefire in Ukraine which is why investors hedged potentially bullish risks by increasing their short-positions until noon. The noticeable losses the euro had marked on Thursday (making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors in the currency bloc) didn't have any larger impact at this time of day. In the afternoon, however, data on the US labor market fell short of expectations. Moreover, there were reports saying that there would be a ceasefire in the east of Ukraine. Even though the members of the EU agreed on new sanctions against Russia, that should come into effect today, some diplomats said that these sanctions might be abandoned if the ceasefire lasts and sustainable peace talks start. In the course of the day, the bearish impact of the weaker euro clearly showed at oil markets dragging futures down near the long-time lows they had hit at the beginning of last week. At last, oil futures settled with significant losses.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 851.75 USD on Friday, this is -12.00 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 37,600 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The bias of the stochastic indicator has changed and thus, the indicator is meanwhile giving selling signals again. On Thursday and Friday, the stochastic indicator had still provided buying signals. At the WTI chart, the lines of the indicator are drifting apart again, whereas they have crossed at the Brent and the Gasoil chart sending bearish cues. Lately, the stochastic indicator provided mixed cues. Since oil markets proved very volatile, neither the bullish nor the bearish technical bias prevailed. Now, the technical indicators are clearly bearish again, however. This indicates that oil futures will test their supports. We therefore assess the technical constellation as bearish. At first, oil futures should test Friday's lows. Only if they drop below these levels will more potential down to the long-time lows at 100.15 USD and 848.00 USD be created. These thresholds are regarded as key-supports. If these key-supports stay strong, a bottom might form and there might be a counter-reaction. If futures sustainably drop below these supports, technical selling pressure should increase once again on the short-run.

U.S.

Nymex on avarage: After Friday afternoon's losses, oil futures pulled back from their lows in early electronic trading this morning. In the past few hours, they slightly tended to the downside again, however, with ICE G.Oil having slipped below its first support. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Market participants are now watching the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep a close eye on the situation in Ukraine, Iraq and Libya and today's economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 8-9)
380cst $580
180cst $658
MGO $957

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 8-9)
380cst $584
180cst $670
MGO $953

Singapore (delivered indications 8-9)

WTI is losing with -$2.11 Singapore paper is down with -$7.10 for 180cst and down with -$6.50 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst -$7.25 and 380cst with -$7.00 with MGO contracts Sep losing with -$1.80 and in Oct with -$1.75. The cargo market is gaining with 180cst +$0.37, 380cst down with -$0.88 and MGO with -$0.52.

The Singapore fuel oil prices close the week trading around parity during the Asian Platts window. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a draw of -2.66 mbbl to 17.38 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were estimated at app. +$9.5 above cargo prices last Friday.

380cst $580
180cst $592
MGO $858

Fujairah (delivered indications 8-9)

380cst $610
180cst $635
MGO $983

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $552
(1.0 %) : $562
180cst: $584
MGO 0.1%S: $820