Tue 26 Aug 2014, 11:08 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



WTI for October delivery was at $93.68 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 33 cents, at 3:06 p.m. Singapore time. The contract slid 30 cents to $93.35 yesterday, the lowest close since Jan. 14. The volume of all futures traded was about 49 percent below the 100-day average. Prices have declined 4.8 percent this year.

Brent for October settlement was 20 cents higher at $102.85 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $9.20 to WTI. The spread closed at $9.30 yesterday, the widest since March 14.

Trading at oil markets was rather subdued at the beginning of the week as many British traders stayed absent from their desks due to the Summer Bank Holiday. Even though trading hours at ICE were as usual, volumes were rather thin. The slightly bullish technical constellation favored tests of the upside. This was chiefly the case for crude oil futures at ICE and NYMEX. The fact that Libya's oil output had risen to 656,000 bpd was rather seen as bearish, however. New cues were only provided in the early hours of US trade. After oil futures briefly climbed, investors soon took profits sending the Gasoil contract to a new low in late-afternoon trading. Later in the evening, trading was rather volatile. Futures oscillated between gains and losses now and again but eventually, they settled with small gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 860.00 USD on Monday, this is -0.25 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 23,100 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

Monday morning the stochastic indicator was still slightly bullish at the Brent and the WTI charts favoring upward moves. In the course of the day, the RSI confirmed the slightly bullish technical constellation exceeding 30% significantly. Meanwhile, the indicator has dropped back to 30%, however. Like the stochastic indicator at ICE and NYMEX charts, the index has thus turned neutral again, see also technical analysis. Even though Brent yesterday breached a resistance, its superordinate down trend remained intact. Moreover, a short-term technical triangle that has formed at the WTI chart limits the trading range. If WTI breaks above or below this triangle, the resulting cues might give oil markets a direction. Since there aren't any fresh cues so far, the technical constellation can be regarded as neutral, the more so as the cues the stochastic indicator and the RSI provided last week, yesterday resp. have wanted.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: After having edged slightly higher in early morning trade, oil futures just dropped back from their first resistances. There were no important cues so far and investors are waiting for the return of the British traders. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average for this time of day. Traders are now waiting for the meeting of the Ukrainian and the Russian president closely eying the development at stock and forex markets, too. They will also keep a close eye on the situation in Iraq and Libya. There are also some economic indicators due today and the API is going to release its data on US oil inventories at 10.30 p.m. tonight .

Analysts expect that crude oil and product stocks in the USA declined in the week ending August 22.

The figures of the survey in detail: crude oil -1.8; distillates -0.3; gasoline -1.7 vs million barrels previous week.

Market players are likely to regard the expected draw in US crude oil and product stocks as bullish. However, they are still waiting for the API's data due at 10.30 p.m. tonight and on the DOE's report, which is going to be released at 4.30 p.m. on Wednesday.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22-8)
380cst $578
180cst $668
MGO $961

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 22-8)
380cst $581
180cst $661
MGO $954

Singapore (delivered indications 26-8)

WTI is loosing slightly with -$0.13. Singapore paper is up with +$3.10 for 180cst and +$1.75 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst +$3.00 and 380cst with +$2.00 with MGO contracts Sep gaining with -$0.32 and in Oct with +$0.39. The cargo market is loosing with 180cst -$3.02, 380cst with -$4.28 and MGO with -$0.35.

The Singapore fuel oil prices fell more than -$3.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday tracking the weaker crude values. Market fundamentals remain firm as reflected in the physical premiums. The delivered bunker premiums were seen between +$8.0 and +$9.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading higher.

380cst $585
180cst $598
MGO $865

Fujairah (delivered indications 26-8)

380cst $599
180cst $633
MGO $984

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $561
(1.0 %) : $567
180cst: $591
MGO 0.1%S: $832

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