Mon 18 Aug 2014, 11:28 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil prices eased in Asia this morning after gains last week after Ukraine said it destroyed armored vehicles that had been seen entering the country from Russia on Friday.

After Thursday's decline, selling pressure at oil markets ebbed on Friday morning. Shortly ahead of the weekend and after a volatile week, market participants consolidated their risk positions covering their short positions. Quotations at ICE and NYMEX thus tested their first resistances but failed to breach them. That is why they stayed near the long-time-lows they had hit on Thursday. At first, buying only prevailed with the WTI contract. The US crude oil sort surpassed its first resistances in the early afternoon and so the spread between WTI and Brent narrowed. Shortly before the expiry of the WTI September contract on Wednesday, the backwardation constellation supports the US crude oil sort. Particularly the prices of contracts with sooner delivery increased. In late-afternoon trading, Gasoil and Brent breached their first resistances, too. This automatically generated further buying orders. The sharp rise had been caused by news from Kiev saying that the Ukrainian army had attacked and destroyed the Russian military convoy that is to have entered Ukrainian territory early Friday morning. Brent surged by more than one dollar and Gasoil pulled back from its low as well. The still largely bearish market situation and the lack of a reaction from Moscow prevented oil futures from paring Thursday's losses, however.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 866.75 USD on Friday, this is ±0.00 USD vs. Thursday's settlement. With some 59,400 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

Both the stochastic indicator and the RSI are neutral at ICE charts giving no fresh cues. At the WTI chart, the lines of the stochastic indicator have crossed giving a buying signal but the indicator is likely to be skewed at this chart due to spreadbets and the relatively sharp price increase in the WTI September contract (spot month) on Friday. That is why we are neglecting this buying signal in our technical assessment this morning. The downtrends at the ICE charts largely remain intact. Still, they are providing some upward as well as downward slack. Oil futures might find strong support near last week's lows. Since there are no new cues at ICE so far, however, the technical constellation can be regarded as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex on avarage: After Friday's late rise, oil futures have edged lower in Asian and electronic trading this morning. It still is but a moderate decline, however, with prices at ICE and NYMEX staying above Friday's levels. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Traders are now waiting for the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep a close eye on the situation in Iraq, in the Ukraine and Libya and on the few indicators due today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-8)
380cst $578
180cst $671
MGO $969

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-8)
380cst $584
180cst $671
MGO $958

Singapore (delivered indications 18-8)

WTI is gaining with +$0.54. Singapore paper is up with +$2.65 for 180cst and +$2.60 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst +$2.75 and 380cst with +$2.60 with MGO contracts Aug gaining with -$2.37 and in Sep losing with -$0.01. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$5.83, 380cst with -$5.05 and MGO gaining with -$2.43.

The Singapore fuel oil prices fell more than $5.0 during the Platts window last Friday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a large draw of -2.74 mbbl to +16.53 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around +$10.0- 8.5above cargo prices.

380cst $585
180cst $599
MGO $872

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-8)

380cst $602
180cst $640
MGO $982

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $563
(1.0 %) : $568
180cst: $593
MGO 0.1%S: $ 833

MGO  

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