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Crude oil futures edged higher this morning, but gains were expected to remain limited as Thursday's globally positive U.S. economic reports lent support to the U.S. dollar.

Oil markets saw light profit taking on Thursday morning after futures in London and New York had marked new gains on Wednesday afternoon on the release of the DOE's oil inventories report. Prices were weighed down in the early hours of European trade on Thursday by the resumption of oil production at the Libyan oil fields El Feel and Wafa. News saying that Iran's oil exports had increased to 1.5 mbpd added to pressure. The technical constellation provided a first selling signal at the Brent chart (RSI) but there weren't any other technical signals that might have confirmed this. Thus, the technical constellation remained neutral yesterday unable to generate a new downward move. Therefore, oil futures regained ground again, the more so as the continuing crisis in Ukraine was still buoying oil markets. The IEA's monthly energy report came in rather neutral, even though some traders regarded the agency's forecast of a rise in OPEC-crude oil demand in the second half of 2014 as a slightly bullish factor. Economic indicators out of the USA came in very mixed. After the weekly US jobs data had initially supported oil prices, the rest of the data rather disappointed expectations and so, investors renewedly took profits in the afternoon. Since Brent's June contract expired yesterday, investors also cut some of their spreadbets and long positions "rolling" them to the new front month contract with July delivery and to the contracts with even later delivery. In all, market players were looking for clear signals yesterday that might justify a change of direction at oil markets. However, neither market fundamentals, nor the technical constellation provided such cues. That is why oil futures largely settled on a high level marking only a few losses in late trade.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 914.00 dollars on Thursday. This was +1.25 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 79,400 deals, the traded volume was clearly above average.

The RSI climbed back above 70% at the Brent chart neutralizing yesterday's selling signal. Only if the indicator drops back below this line will there be a renewed selling signal. The stochastic indicator points to a selling signal at the Brent chart, even though it hasn't crossed clearly enough up to now. Therefore, we are still assessing the indicator as neutral. At the WTI and the Gasoil chart, the lines of the stochastic indicator have already crossed and so, this morning there were some bearish cues, WTI's short-term uptrend is still intact but contains potential down to 100.70 USD. From a merely technical perspective, we thus assess the situation as neutral to bearish. If further selling cues confirm the signals of the stochastic at the Gasoil and the WTI chart, technical selling pressure is likely to considerably rise in the course of the day. The technical constellation would then turn clearly bearish. Selling signals might particularly be generated by the stochastic indicator at the Brent chart or by the RSI at the Brent and the WTI chart.

U.S.

Nymex above average: After having regained some ground in Asian and electronic trading this morning, oil futures are meanwhile ticking lower again. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of day. Traders are now eying stock and forex markets, awaiting news regarding Ukraine, Libya and the negotiations with Iran as well as today's economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-5)
380cst $609
180cst $685
MGO $980

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 16-5)
380cst $611
180cst $663
MGO $981

Singapore (delivered indications 16-5)

WTI is down with -$0.13. Singapore paper is up with +$2.25 for 180cst and +$2.75 for 380cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$2.00 and 380cst +$2.90 with MGO contracts being bullish Jun +$0.25 and Jul +$0.19. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst being bearish however with -$1.83, 380cst +$0.01 and MGO +$0.44.

The Singapore fuel oil prices closed generally lower ranging between -$2.0 to flat during the Asian Platts window yesterday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory report showed a draw of -0.14 million mt to 19.82 million mt. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around +$3.0 to +$5.5 above cargo prices.

380cst $595
180cst $609
MGO $922

Fujairah (delivered indications 16-5)

380cst $603
180cst $640
MGO $986

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $579
(1.0 %) : $638
180cst: $619
MGO 0.1%S: $885