Mon 7 Apr 2014, 12:32 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil futures slipped lower on Monday as the Libyan government confirmed that two oil ports were to reopen for exports, after officials and Libyan rebels reached an agreement to end an eight-month blockade.

Oil futures in London and New York already edged higher on Friday morning breaching first resistances which triggered further technical buying. Prices were buoyed by the technical constellation as the lines of the stochastic indicator crossed in the early morning giving a buying signal at the Brent chart. At the Gasoil and the WTI chart the buying signal was confirmed later in the morning and so technical buying pressure lasted until the afternoon. As to market fundamentals, investors were still waiting for news regarding Libya. Traders hoped for a confirmation that the control of the occuppied oil ports in the east of the country was handed over to the government. However, this was not the case ahead of the weekend and so, like in the past few weeks, investors tended to cover their short positions. "We’re all keeping an eye on developments in Libya. If there’s a resolution and the oil starts to move, we could turn around and test the recent lows.”, Tradition Energy analyst explains. The latest US labor market data was embraced even though unemployment didn't retreat, like it had been expected, and the number of newly created jobs rose less than forecast. The fact that February-figures were upwardly revised balanced this, however. Therefore, market players at least had no reason to increase their short positions. Whilst Brent and WTI consolidated near their highs in the evening, product futures saw some profit taking in late trade. At the beginning of this week, the softer tendency prevailed as two oil terminals were handed over to the Libyan government by the rebels yesterday - a fact that provided more bearish cues.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 893.50 USD on Friday. This was +12.00 USD above Thursday's settlement. With some 26,100 deals, the traded volume of the front month was below average.

After the stochastic indicator gave some buying signals last week, the indicator formally remains bullish at ICE and NYMEX charts at the beginning of this week. With Thursday's and Friday's rise at oil markets, the stochastic indicator is likely to have spent most of its influence already. Since Brent and Gasoil have meanwhile dropped below Friday's lows, new downward potential and a selling signal have been generated which are opposing the bullish impact of the stochastic indicator. Thus we assess the technical constellation as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex edged lower: The deblocking of two oil terminals in the east of Libya made oil futures at ICE and NYMEX edge lower this morning. Futures at ICE have already dropped below Friday's lows. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Investors are now eying the development at stock and forex markets. After the data on Germany's industrial production have already been released earlier this morning no further important indicators are due today. Moreover they are keeping an eye on the situation in Libya and on the tensions between Russia and the West.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 7-4)
380cst $586
180cst $692
MGO $978

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 7-4)
380cst $619
180cst $672
MGO $972

Singapore (delivered indications 7-4)

WTI is lower with -$0.42. Singapore paper is down aswell with -$5.60 for 180cst and -$4.00 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$4.50 and 380cst -$4.00 with MGO contracts being bearish Apr -$1.32 and May -$1.40. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$5.82, 380cst +$4.18 and MGO +$2.06.

The Singapore fuel oil prices rose between +$4.5 to +$6.0 during the Asian window last Friday. The latest Singapore heavy residual stockpile rose +3.36 mbbl to 21.84 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were ranging around +$3.5 to $4.5 above cargo prices last Friday.

380cst $588
180cst $605
MGO $915

Fujairah (delivered indications 7-4)

380cst $603
180cst $638
MGO $983

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $571
(1.0 %) : $638
180cst: $611
MGO 0.1%S: $861

MGO  

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