Thu 27 Mar 2014, 14:28 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil prices eased slightly in Asia on Thursday after overnight gains on better-than-expected reports on U.S. durable goods and oil inventories.

On Wednesday morning oil futures at ICE and NYMEX consolidated sideways in a relatively tight range. With the reopening of the Houston Ship Channel, one bullish factor for oil markets waned but investors remained cautious waiting for the data on US oil inventories due later Wednesday afternoon. Only NYMEX futures edged higher ahead of the DOE's report as a section of the 850,000 bpd-Colonial pipeline was shut-down for unplanned repair work. The pipeline is transporting refined products from the US Gulf coast to the North-East of the USA. The massive builds in US crude oil stocks that were reported by the DOE sent futures at ICE and NYMEX lower shortly after the release of the DOE's data and so Brent and Gasoil breached several supports. However, they renewedly failed to break below their key-supports at 106.45 USD and 891.75 USD. The draw in Cushing crude oil stocks meanwhile buoyed the WTI contract as market participants renewedly bet on the spread between Brent and WTI. Thus the price discount between the two crude oil sorts narrowed to less than 7 USD in late trade. NYMEX Gasoline futures saw a late upward correction to earlier losses as stocks in this category had sharply declined and demand had surged. This also sent the other contracts slightly higher. Even though the other contracts pulled back from their lows, Gasoil settled with considerable losses and Brent remained nearly unchanged compared to its opening level. WTI and NYMEX Gasoline marked new highs at night, however, bolstered by the bullish components of the DOE's data.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 893,25 USD on Wednesday. This was -7.75 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 41,800 deals, the traded volume of the front month was below average.

The stochastic indicator at ICE is still neutral as the lines of the indicator haven't crossed yet. At the NYMEX charts, the stochastic indicator has turned bullish again making NYMEX futures trade more steadily within their short-term uptrends. Despite the rather bearish data on US oil inventories, WTI traded slightly higher on Wednesday. This is likely to be due to spreadbets that might have skewed the signal of the indicator. Consequently, we exclude WTI from our technical assessment this morning. Since the indicators don't show any clear signals at ICE, we are regarding the technical situation as neutral. The markers at 106.45 USD Brent and 891,75 USD Gasoil should be key-supports today. The upside might be capped near key-resistances at 107.20 USD Brent and 901.50 USD Gasoil. If oil futures break above or below these levels, bullish or bearish signals might be triggered at the ICE charts.

U.S.

Nymex cooling: After investors took some profits at ICE yesterday oil futures are nearly unchanged this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Traders are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets looking ahead to today's economic data and keeping an eye on the development of the situation in the Ukraine.

API: Crude oil +6.3; Distillates +0.3; Gasoline -2.8 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE's: Crude oil +6.6; Distillates +1.6; Gasoline -5.1 million barrels vs previous week.
Forecasts: Crude oil +2.5; Distillates -1.11; Gasoline -1.7 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 27-3)
380cst $595
180cst $673
MGO $991

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 27-3)
380cst $626
180cst $670
MGO $984

Singapore (delivered indications 27-3)

WTI is dropping slightly with -$0.83. Singapore paper is bullish with +$0.35 for 180cst and +$0.05 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$0.45 and 380cst +$0.05 with MGO contracts being bearish Apr -$0.28 and May -$0.27. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$1.98, 380cst -$0.18 and MGO +$0.32.

The Singapore fuel oil prices were mostly tracking crude movements ranging between -$0.25 to +$1.75 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. The price action mostly came from the volatile trading in the physical cargo segment. The delivered bunker premiums were seen between +$2.0 and $5.0 above cargo prices.

380cst $600
180cst $612
MGO $912

Fujairah (delivered indications 27-3)

380cst $609
180cst $640
MGO $983

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $577
(1.0 %) : $637
180cst: $617
MGO 0.1%S: $867

BP   MGO  

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