---

Market in Brief

Oil dipped slightly lower over night as market expected lower demand during the refinery maintenance season. WTI slipped $0.02 to close at $100.35 while Brent dipped $0.06 to finish at $108.73. However the overall oil complex still have a good support on the back of the higher forecast for oil demand this year (from both OPEC and EIA) while IEA reported a fall of 60,000 bpd for Saudi Arabia output in January and a decline of 140,000 bpd for Iraq. The slightly worse jobless data was compounded by weak US retail sales probably impacted by the cold winter suggesting consumers saved money toward soaring heating fuel prices . China “teapot” refineries cut run rates to the lowest level since August: They use fuel oil and crude as feedstock to produce gasoline and diesel. Their imports of fuel oil account for about 30% of China’s total demand. Brent is trading softer today down -0.20c at $108.28/bbl.

Fuel oil Specifics

3.5% Barges closed at 577.5 usd/mt in the window up 2.25 usd/mt. There are still plenty of High sulfur in the area while while low sulfur prices are surging over tight avails. Going into march the market sees an improvement of the situation showing a 7 usd/mt backwardation between February and March In Asia, the physical market was firmer and the cash premium for both 180cst and 380cst strengthened slightly for the second straight session due to tensions around tighter on -specifications supply. Asia will receive a higher supply of fuel oil from the West in March, estimated at about 3.84 million tonnes, as compared to February’s 3.33 million tonnes, it is still below the monthly average of 4.5 million tonnes last year. The cargoes are also of heavier viscosity and density qualities that need to be further blended using low-density, low-viscosity material before it is suitable for cash trading in Asia. The market is currently facing less availability for such low density cargoes as Iran has trimmed exports due to higher domestic demand during winter followed by a planned refinery maintenance.

Forward Indications

Product	Mar	Apr	May	Q214	Q314	Q414
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	99,35	98,60	97,87	97,86	95,58	93,31
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	108,16	107,80	107,42	106,99	106,03	103,90
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	917,92	913,83	911,33	911,75	908,28	902,44
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	578,25	577,50	577,00	577,00	575,25	571,75
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	575,25	574,75	574,50	574,50	572,50	568,75
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	607,50	604,75	602,75	603,00	601,50	593,75
3% no. 6 USGC WB	90,50	90,30	90,42	90,17	89,78	87,85
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	604,50	601,00	599,00	599,25	597,25	595,00
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	919,25	915,25	911,25	912,25	907,25	902,25
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	583,50	582,75	582,25	582,25	580,50	577,00
Physical Singapore 380 CST	609,75	606,25	604,25	604,50	602,50	600,25

Focus of the day: Piraeus

East med saw high demand this week. Crude market was dropping and cargo values decreased significantly. Piraeus was faced with increased activity as product availability improved and bad weather in Gibraltar and Malta prompted some operators to shift their vessels to the Greek hub, where the weather rarely affects supplies, for bunker only calls. Istanbul remains very competitive, with the spread on HSFO between this port and Piraeus remaining close to $ 10. Both ports report very good product and barge availability and although one out of two local refineries in Piraeus was not allowing loadings to take place during the last few weeks, prices have not been affected and the Greek port remains the most competitive option in the East Med.

Economic fundamentals this week

Statistic	Importance	Date	Time	Period	Consensus	Last	Actual
Wholesale Inventories	Medium	11-Feb	10:00 AM	Dec	0.60%	0.50%	0.30%
Treasury Budget	Medium	12-Feb	2:00 PM	Jan	-10.4B	$2.9B	-10.4B
Initial Claims	Medium	13-Feb	8:30 AM	08-feb	335K	331K	339K
Retail Sales	High	13-Feb	8:30 AM	Jan	-0.20%	0.20%	-0.4
Business Inventories	Medium	13-Feb	10:00 AM	Dec	0.60%	0.40%	0.50%
Industrial Production	Medium	14-Feb	9:15 AM	Jan	0.60%	0.30%	-
Mich Sentiment	High	14-Feb	9:55 AM	Jan	79.80%	79.20%	-