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Nymex crude oil prices rose during Asian trading this morning after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested monetary authorities remain on course to continue tapering monthly bond purchases as the economy improves.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX edged higher on Tuesday morning profiting from positive sentiment and an increasing risk appetite at financial markets. Even though fundamental cues were lacking at that time, the surge at stock markets and the steadier euro sent oil prices higher. In the course of the day investors were waiting for Janet Yellen's inaugural speech, which was scheduled at 4 p.m.. Here statements already become known before the actual discourse. But the new Fed chief's testimony itself brought no surprises anyway. Volatility at oil markets slightly increased shortly after Mrs Yellen's discourse but oil futures failed to find a direction. Later in the evening, after our submission deadline, the API released its report on US oil inventories. The figures were chiefly bullish for the WTI contract but hardly impacted the rest of the contracts. Given the gains oil futures marked in the morning, they thus settled slightly steadier. WTI marked the sharpest rise of all contracts after they had been pushed higher by the API's data. The spread between Brent and WTI consequently narrowed amounting to about 8.40 dollars this morning.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 921.50 USD on Tuesday. This was +0.50 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 24,700 deals, the traded volume of the front month was below average.

The stochastic indicator at the Brent chart points to a selling signal as its lines have lightly crossed. At the Gasoil and the WTI chart the indicator is still neutral, however. The RSI doesn't give any new cues either. Given the selling signal at the Brent chart, formally, the technical constellation currently is slightly bearish. However, a technical sell-off is only likely when the the selling signal is confirmed by a selling signal at the Gasoil and the WTI chart. Apart from this, the RSI might give a confirming selling signal at the WTI chart if it drops below 70%.

U.S.

Nymex cooling: Given the mixed cues oil futures received last night and earlier this morning, markets are currently struggling to find a direction. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Investors are now eying the development at stock markets waiting for new cues from forex markets.

Forecasts: Crude oil +2.6; Distillates -2.1; Gasoline -0.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +2.1; Distillates -1.5 ; Gasoline -0.5 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-2)
380cst $599
180cst $704
MGO $1013

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 12-2)
380cst $610
180cst $653
MGO $1009

Singapore (delivered indications 12-2)

WTI is bullish with +$0.30. Singapore paper is back on its bullish track with +$6.15 for 180cst and +$5.40 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst +$5.50 and 380cst +$3.75 with MGO contracts being bullish Feb +$0.13 and Mar -$0.38. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst $4.23, 380cst -$2.34 and MGO +$1.66.

In Singapore cash premium for the 380cst fuel oil slid for the sixth session to a more than two week low on Tuesday, amid more supply and lower demand for bunker. Ex-wharf 380cst where assessed -4.00/mt lower at 611.00/mt. Delivered bunker 380cst as well where seen at lower levels around avg. 605/mt to 610.00/mt. Tightness in most loading terminals 380cst cargos and readiness looking 19th Feb14 onwards. Overall bunker premium have maintained at high single digit and as a result from berth congestions resulting from barge tightness we advice customers to advice ETA in well advance notice. Paper market today experienced a rebound for fuel oil, cracks firmed and we saw market up +6.75/mt in the front swap 380FO Bal Feb value 612.75/mt and Mar 380FO traded at 603.75/mt up +3.75/mt.

380cst $618
180cst $632
MGO $929

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-2)

380cst0 $620
180cst $650
MGO $990

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $585
(1.0 %) : $628
180cst: $615
MGO 0.1%S: $ 886