Geopolitical instability has emerged as the defining risk facing the global shipping industry, acting as a multiplier across a range of operational and strategic challenges, according to the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) Maritime Barometer Report 2025–2026, launched on 23 June at the organisation’s Shaping the Future of Shipping Summit in Rome.

The report, which surveys C-suite executives, shipowners and operators worldwide, recorded a record number of responses in its latest edition. It identifies geopolitical instability as the sector’s most pressing concern and finds that this instability compounds challenges including cybersecurity threats, regulatory fragmentation, administrative burden and shifting global trade patterns.

ICS Secretary General Thomas Kazakos commented: “Global shipping is entering a period where uncertainty is no longer an interruption to business, it is the backdrop against which decisions are made. The findings of this year’s Barometer are clear: geopolitical instability has become a defining risk multiplier, influencing everything from market conditions and operational planning to investment decisions and the pace of the energy transition. In response, industry leaders are taking an increasingly pragmatic approach, prioritising resilience, adaptability and proven solutions.”

Fuels outlook shaped by uncertainty

The Barometer’s dedicated fuels section points to a cautious, infrastructure-led approach to decarbonisation. Respondents identified LNG and biofuels as the most viable fuel options for the coming decade, followed closely by heavy fuel oil (HFO) combined with abatement technologies. It suggests there is a preference for solutions underpinned by established supply chains and infrastructure, rather than emerging alternatives that face challenges related to cost and availability.

The findings indicate that, without greater regulatory certainty, the industry’s energy transition is likely to follow a more measured trajectory. Industry leaders are said to be calling for greater coordination between governments and the shipping sector, as well as clearer regulatory frameworks and financial support mechanisms to facilitate decarbonisation.

Kazakos stated: “Maintaining progress will require regulatory clarity, global alignment, and continued cooperation between industry and governments. The report reinforces the importance of stable international frameworks that support investment and provide confidence for long-term decision-making. At a time of increasing fragmentation, maintaining a consistent global approach is essential for shipping, supply chains, and the wider world economy.”

Resilience amid fragmentation

Despite the challenging environment outlined in the report, ICS notes that the findings also point to the sector’s capacity to adapt. The barometer underscores calls from shipping leaders for a more coordinated international regulatory approach, with the report warning that increasing fragmentation poses risks not only to the shipping industry but to global trade more broadly.

ICS represents merchant shipowners and operators across all sectors and trades, and claims to represent over 80% of the world’s merchant fleet.