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New York-traded crude oil futures fell from a four-week high on Friday, as growing concerns over the economic outlook in emerging markets and the impact on future oil demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity. China's factory growth eased to an expected six-month low in January, hurt by weaker local and foreign demand and by worries of a wide slowdown across emerging markets. That weighed across most markets such as Asian shares and base metals as investors found a new reason to sell high-risk assets.

On Friday morning, there were no decisive cues for oil markets but until noon a bearish tendency prevailed at ICE. The stronger dollar and the problems of emerging markets prompted investors to take some profits with Gasoil and Brent. Several supports have been breached until early afternoon generating more technical selling orders. At NYMEX, too, the bearish note predominated at that time but later in the afternoon spreadbets supported the WTI contract sending the US crude oil higher again. The commissioning of the southern section of the Keystone pipeline and the low level of distillate stocks in the north-east of the USA limited the downward potential at NYMEX until late in the evening. Only when the front month contracts of distillate futures expired at 8 p.m. did oil prices renewedly decline settling with losses eventually. ICE futures showed a softer tendency all day anyway settling near their intraday-lows. The spread between Brent and WTI thus narrowed to less than 9 dollars on Friday.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 917.00 USD on Friday. This was -7.00 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 48,000 deals, the traded volume of the front month was slighty below average.

The stochastic indicator is bearish at ICE as well as at NYMEX charts favoring further tests of the downward potential. The selling signal at ICE was already generated on Friday afternoon, however, when contracts fell below their latest uptrends. Friday's sharp decline has spent most of the bearish impact of the stochastic indicator, however, and so market players might tend to cover their short positions this morning. This could trigger an upward correction before oil futures may renewedly test Friday's lows. Consequently, we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bearish.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: After Friday's downward move, oil futures saw a light upward correction in electronic trading this morning although economic data out of China disappointed expectations. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Traders are now monitoring the development at stock markets looking ahead to new cues from forex markets. They will also keep eying the situation in the geopolitical hot spots. Moreover, they are waiting for today's economic data.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 3-2)
380cst $595
180cst $677
MGO $1021

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 3-2)
380cst $606
180cst $663
MGO $1000

Singapore (delivered indications 3-2)

WTI is cooling slightly, dropping with -$0.12. Singapore paper is back on its bearish track with -$8.15 for 180cst and -$6.50 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst -$6.65 and 380cst -$7.75 with MGO contracts also bearish Feb -$1.08 and Mar -$1.20. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$2.94, 380cst +$0.17 and MGO +$0.07.

380cst $622
180cst $633
MGO $920

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $572
(1.0 %) : $604
180cst: $602
MGO 0.1%S: $ 872