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Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours this morning after the IEA said that global demand is on the rise and the International Monetary Fund decided to hike its 2014 global growth forecasts. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD95.19 a barrel during Asian trading, down 0.04%.

This week has started quite calmly as traders overseas were absent on Monday due to the US holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day). Since, on Tuesday, those traders returned to their desks, oil markets proved slightly more steady early Tuesday morning. Little later, they were boosted by the IEA's monthly energy report. The agency upwardly revised its growth forecast for global oil demand in 2014 by about +0.1 mbpd. Oil prices thus breached several resistances generating even more technical buying orders and increasing buying pressure. Gains were only capped near the resistances at 108.00 dollars Brent and 924.50 dollars Gasoil. Since these resistances proved strong and market players still regard total oil supplies as sufficient in 2014, despite the upward revision of the IEA's demand forecast, investors took some profits in late-afternoon trading. Product futures at NYMEX and quotations at ICE significantly pulled back from their highs whereas WTI remained steady until the evening settling with new highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 919.00 USD on Tuesday. This was +11.25 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 67,000 deals, the traded volume above average.

The stochastic indicator can be considered neutral both at the Brent and the WTI chart but might give a selling signal at the Gasoil chart as its lines have crossed there. Since the stochastic indicator at the Gasoil chart formally is bearish already, the technical constellation is neutral to bearish this morning. We only expect some technical profit taking, however, when the selling signal is confirmed by the stochastic indicator at the Brent and the Gasoil chart.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: After the price surge yesterday around noon, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX have seen a downward correction on Tuesday afternoon. In early morning trade, futures edged higher again keeping track of WTI's rise. The US crude oil contract is fostered by the start of the southern section of the Keystone XL pipeline. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average for this time of day. Investors are now looking ahead to the development at stock markets waiting for new cues from forex markets. They will also keep eying the situation in Libya, Iraq and South Sudan. As to economic data, only the US Redbook is due to be released this afternoon. Market players are also increasingly shifting their focus toward the data on US oil inventories.

Forecasts: Crude oil +1.7; Distillates -0.5; Gasoline +1.5 million barrels vs previous week".
Due to the US holiday on Monday, the data on US oil inventoires will be released one day later than usual this week.
The API's figures are due tonight at 10.30 p.m. The DOE's more detailed report will be released on Thursday at 5 p.m.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22-1)
380cst $581
180cst $651
MGO $966

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 22-1)
380cst $592
180cst $657
MGO $993

Singapore

WTI is cooling slightly, climbing still with +$0.90. Singapore paper is slightly bullish with +$2.40 for 180cst and +$1.75 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst +$1.65 and 380cst +$1.25 with MGO contracts slightly bearish Feb -$0.04 and Mar -$0.03. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$1.17, 380cst +$1.78 and MGO +$0.65.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up more than $1.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. Market was said to be firm going forward especially next month where supplies are tighter. The delivered bunker premiums were ranging between $7.0 and $8.0 above cargo prices yesterday. This morning both markets are trading slightly higher.

380cst $611
180cst $623
MGO $913

Fujairah (delivered indications 22-01)

380cst $625
180cst $660
MGO $985

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $568
(1.0 %) : $598
180cst: $598
MGO 0.1%S: $ 883