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Fuel oil trend

Rotterdam: $ 1 higher. Singapore: $ 7 higher. US Gulf: $ 2 higher.

Strikes continue in Libya (Brent: $108.50)

The yo-yo oil output from the Libyan oilfields continues to affect global markets. From pre-war levels of 1.6mbpd down to almost zero, back up again to 1.4-1.5mbpd after the overthrow of Qaddafi, and then back down again towards zero as the different tribes battle it out who should get how much of the oil revenue. We do not see a return to high and stable production anytime soon, and expect the pendulum output scenario to continue well into next year.

No market moving macro figures will be published today, but potentially we will se the 'usual' Friday movements where prices drift in the opposite direction of the week's price action. If this pattern repeats itself, we could see a small setback today. Next week the bullish tendency is however expected to continue.

Recommendation

Yesterday’s closing price and bullish momentum has increased the likelihood of a further upwards attempt in the coming days. Resistance is cleared at the 108-ish level and prices seem to be aiming at 110-112 for the next stop. Any setbacks look to be good buying opportunities for consumers should it suit your budget. Suppliers with a very short timeframe could consider hedging today, however; if the timeframe is longer we generally advise to wait for higher levels.