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Although oil futures had still been trading just slightly below their first supports before the opening of European markets, they moved in opposite direction in the course of the session. While Brent rose above its first resistance, WTI remained rangebound below 100 USD as the oil glut the USA keeps weighing. WTI remains pressured by high crude inventories in Cushing that reached a 14-week high. For ICE futures, however, at least the technical constellation is slightly bullish after the Stochastic's lines have now also crossed at the Brent chart. Due to oversupply in the USA, the Brent-WTI spread has meanwhile further widened to 10.68 USD for the front month December. This is the biggest difference in price in six months. After the U.S. benchmark fell below 100 USD, analysts now also see little upward potential for its European counterpart, not least because the risk premium is declining as geopolitical tensions are easing. Merely the fundamental situation in Brazil and Scotland. While oil workers' strike at the Grangemouth refinery still threatens to disrupt Forties supplies, the situation in Brazil should cool down now that the Libra oil field has been sold to a consortium, with Petrobras holding a 40% share.

Oil markets in London and New York had been ticking lower Monday morning and tested their upward potential early on. After the strong price increase on Friday, traders were consolidating their risk positions while waiting for the release of the delayed DoE report for week number 41 yesterday and for U.S. job market data due today. Propped by technical buyings after the supports at 109.30 USD (Brent), at 99.50 USD (WTI) and at 936.75 USD (G.Oil) had remained strong, oil markets firmed up at the opening of U.S. trading and prices rose to their day's highs in this phase. Adding to the upward potential were news about strikes by Petrobras oil workers in Brasil. With the release of the DoE data at 4.30 p.m., oil futures declined again. Due to the strong build in crude inventories, WTI eventually breached its important support at 99.50 USD and fell down to 99.00 USD. ICE contracts held steady as the before-mentioned support levels proved to be strong. As a result, the Brent-WTI spread widened again to almost 10 USD.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 939.25 USD on Friday. This was 7.75 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 61,800 deals, the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic has turned bullish for G.Oil and has given off a buying signals. The indicators technically is bullish for Brent, too, favouring a technical upward movement. However, the buying signal is not as strong yet as for G.Oil. Downward potential is currently being limited by Brent's strong support at 109.35 USD. If the contract failed to sustainably breach this line, upward momentum would arise. For WTI, the Stochastic still is slightly bearish, although this might be somewhat distorted after the delayed DoE data yesterday and the upcoming front month change tonight. Thus, we consider the technical constellation as neutral to bullish this morning.

U.S.

Nymex bearish: After the bearish DoE report released yesterday, WTI is also edging lower this morning. However, the contract has not seen any big price jumps yet. ICE futures have been also trading hardly changed so far. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly below average for this time of day. Market players are now eying the performance of European markets and the upcoming economic data, with U.S. indicators certainly being in focus today.

API's: Crude oil +5.9; distillates -1.3; gasoline -2.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.8%.
DOE's; Crude oil +4.0; distillates -1.8; gasoline -2.6 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.2%.
Forecasts: Crude oil +1.7; distillates -1.2; gasoline -0.1 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-10)
380cst $604
180cst $660
MGO $1015

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-10)
380cst $607
180cst $653
MGO $1018

Singapore

Crude is up only slightly with WTI +$0.06. Singapore paper is slowing, but not turning yet with -$2.35 for 180cst and -$1.65 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst -$1.85 and 380cst -$1.50 with MGO contracts Nov -$0.05 and Dec -$0.07. The cargo market is slightly bullish as well with 180cst +$3.53, 380cst +$2.25 and MGO +0.82.

380cst $622
180cst $627
MGO $940

Fujairah (delivered indications 22-10)

380cst $620
180cst $677
MGO $1007

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $588
(1.0 %) :$611
180cst: $618
(1.0 %):$ 629
MGO 0.1%S: $ 911