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Trend

Rotterdam: $ 2 higher
Singapore: $ 5 lower
US Gulf: $ 1 lower

North Sea exports back on track (Brent: $106.8)

In the North Sea exports are expected to rise again following a period of maintenance. Almost a full million bpd is expected to hit the markets again. With history as a guideline, we are very likely to see hiccups in the restart and the potential spill-over effect into price volatility.

In both China and Germany, two exporting giants, exports were up more than a ½ percent month-on-month. While that does not bode for the return to the blazing gun days of the early millennium, it gives (yet another) hint that the outlook is improving.

Recommendation

We recommend clients to use any setback in prices to enter hedges, should it suit your budgets. In the current unstable geopolitical environment prices seem to be aiming higher. After the second (brief) visit to just below $106 - we estimate $112 to be the next short term price target.