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At the opening of European markets, oil prices slightly traded up again, due to the gains at Asian stock markets. Adding to the bullish potential was the ECB’s announcement (yesterday) to continue its expansive monetary policy for a prolonged period in time. In addition, renewed tensions between Sudan and its Southern neighbour also prop the price level.

On the day after the Egyptian president Mohammed Mursi had been empowered, sentiment at the oil market lightened up a bit. Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX had already been declining again in early Asian trading after surging late on Wednesday and breached their first supports at the start of the European session. As trading remained very thin due to the holiday in the USA, the few present investors tended to take some profits from long positions, the more so as guiding signals were lacking. Given that the situation in Egypt is still not resolved and the DoE reported a massive draw in crude stockpiles, losses at the oil market remained limited, not least because many market participants stayed away from trading and the rest did not want be caught on the wrong foot prior to the release of the official U.S. job market statistics to be released today. Not even rising dollar vs. the euro after the ECB’s interest rate decision and Draghi’s subsequent comments on the central banks future monetary policy could bring traders out of their shell. Quite the opposite, his remarks regarding the benchmark rates drove up the oil market since they are considered as positive for the euro zone’s economy. NYMEX futures consolidated close to their previous day’s level whereas Brent closed with slight losses and G.Oil even settled at its day’s high.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 902.25 USD on Thursday. This was 1.00 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 20,300 deals the traded volume was clearly below average.

The Stochastic indicator triggered a weak selling signal yesterday after its both lines had crossed, except for Brent. The Stochastic’s lines have even diverged again at the G.Oil chart and thus the indicator is rather neutral here. At all charts, steep short-term upward trend channels have formed which still leave some upward potential. Nonetheless, oil markets seem strongly overbought by now which favours a technical downward correction. Thus, and due to the selling signal at the Stochastic yesterday, we consider the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning.

U.S.

Nymex bullish: While ICE futures have been trading little changed within their technical range this morning in Asia, unimpressed by the gains at the Asian stock markets (Nikkei 225), oil prices at NYMEX have been suffering some losses. The American crude contract had joined the upturn at the oil market only at night and has now returned from its highs again. Due to the holiday in the USA yesterday, particularly WTI’s progression might be somewhat distorted this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is now far above average for this time of day as traders are returning to their desks after celebrating Independence Day yesterday. Market players are now closely watching the performance of European markets and new cues from forex trading. There are only a few economic data on the agenda today which the official monthly U.S. job market statistics and non-farm payrolls may be of most importance.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 03-07 )
380cst $586
180cst $640
MGO $975

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 03-07)
380cst $632
180cst $642
MGO $977

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is neutral with +$0.10. The paper market is bullish with Jul 180cst +$1.75 and for 380cst +$0.50, and Aug contracts with 180cst +$0.50, 380st +$0.75. The cargo market is not yet responding, losing with 180cst +$6.70, and 380cst +$7.27 and MGO +$1.14.

Singapore fuel oil market rebounded yesterday more than +$6.5 during the Asian Platts window. Markets saw a renewed wave of buying, narrowing slightly the Asian fuel oil cracks yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums were around +$6.0 above cargo prices. This morning markets are trading marginally higher.

380cst $592
180cst $599
MGO $900

Fujairah (delivered indications 5-07)

380cst $598
180cst $675
MGO $1040

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $585
(1.0 %) :$616
180cst: $616
(1.0 %):$ 644
MGO 0.1%S: $ 884