---

At 0906 GMT, the front-month June Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was down 22 cents at $99.69 a barrel. The front-month May light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 43 cents lower at $88.29 a barrel. Benchmark Brent has lost more than 10% of its value so far in April. Investors have been shaken by dire warnings on future demand from the world's three main oil agencies, disappointing growth and economic data from the two main consuming nations of China and the U.S. and, most recently, a cut to the International Monetary Fund's global GDP growth forecast.

The oil market started softer Tuesday morning. Brent and G.Oil not only hit their day’s lows early on, they also marked fresh 9-month lows at 98.00 USD and 832.50 USD, respectively. After Friday’s and Monday’s heavy price slump, investors seized the low price level for short-coverings and as a result, oil futures were testing their first resistances in the course of the day, with Brent and WTI even breaching theirs. Given the fundamentally and technically bearish market sentiment, however, a sustainable correction of the losses incurred the previous day failed to materialize. Still, the oil market received some support by slightly better-than-expected economic figures out of the USA during New York floor trade. In the end, futures settled near their day’s highs thanks to the strong performance of the stock market and the euro, which had jumped above 1.31 USD again. Brent and WTI, however, closed within their trading range. The American crude clearly traded with a stronger tendency than its European equivalent throughout the day and thus, the spread for June contracts narrowed further towards 11 US.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 835.75 USD on Tuesday. This was 11.50 USD below Monday's settlement. With some 65,400 deals the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic indicator is no longer bearish as it both lines are converging again. If they crossed in the course of the day, a buying signal could arise. The RSI is also scratching the 30%-line and could turn bullish in case of a breach. Both indicators are decisive either for a sustainable technical correction after the massive price slump the past day, or rather, for another test of their long-time lows. Therefore we assume a rather neutral stance this morning.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Oil futures lack direction early this morning, consolidating near yesterday’s highs. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Market players are now eying the performance of European markets and fresh signals from forex trading. As there are no economic indicators to be released today, traders will focus on the DoE data, which will be released in the afternoon.

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30 (API) and Wednesday at 16:0 (DOE)
Forecast: Crude oil + 0.8; distillates -0.4; gasoline +0.7 million barrels vs previous week
API: 0.3Crude oil - 6.7; distillates +1.3; gasoine +0.3 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-04 )
380cst $583
180cst $664
MGO $947

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 16-04)
380cst $589
180cst $635
MGO $948

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is neutral, waiting for indicators with +$0.55. The paper market is bullish , with April 180cst +$4.55 and for 380cst +$3.65, and May contracts with 180cst +$4.00, 380st +$3.65 The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$8.75, and 380cst -$11.03 and MGO -$2.27.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell more than $10.0 during the Platts window on the start of the week tracking the weaker crude values. The Asian fuel oil crack continued to narrow as fuel oil values lagged. The delivered bunker premiums were seen $8.5-7.0 above cargo prices. This morning the markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $593
180 cst $601
MGO $840

Fujairah (delivered indications 17-04)

380cst $600
180cst $651
MGO $955

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Due to high demand, a lot of suppliers are fully booked till 19th, especially for hsfo due to congestion at refineries. They do expect it to be solved within couple of days.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $574
(1.0 %) :$ 584
180cst: $ 604
(1.0 %):$ 614
MGO 0.1%S: $ 820