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Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX already showed a moderate upward tendency on Tuesday morning testing their first resistance lines. Gaining equities and the retreating dollar provided the necessary bullish momentum to make oil futures breach their first resistances in the course of trade. Better-than-expected economic indicators as well as Fed Vice-president Janet Yellen's remarks also provided some impeturs. Like Ben Bernanke, she pointed out the positive features of the US central bank's expansive monetary policy. Despite the positive cues, oil futures initially struggled to mark a sustainable rise and market players now and again seized the rising prices at ICE and NYMEX for some profit taking. In late-evening trade, after submission deadline, Venezuela turned into focus. The government accused two US diplomats of conspiracy and expelled them from the country. At the same time, President Chavez's state of health rapidly worsened. Chavez deceased at about 9.55 p.m. (16:25 local time). Analysts fear that the power vacuum that has thus been created might destabilize the political situation in the country, which was interpreted as bullish by investors at oil markets. Quotations at ICE and NYMEX had already climbed ahead of Chavez's death, when the government and the army came together for crisis talks. Data on US oil inventories published by the API last night came out rather bearish but have so far not had any sustainable impact on oil futures, which settled with new highs yesterday. ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 924.75 USD on Tuesday. This was +5.75 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 42,500 deals the traded volume was below average.

The stochastic indicator gives a clear buying signal at the WTI, Brent and Gasoil charts by now. While the RSI is already bullish at the Brent chart, the indicator might also give a buying signal for Gasoil and WTI - if it surpasses the 30%-line, see also technical analysis. Even though with yesterday night's rise some of the bullish potential has already been spent, the indicators currently point to a further upward correction.

The shared currency showed a rather steady tendency on Tuesday but still forex traders took some profits now and again. Market players will probably stay on the sidelines ahead of the ECB's decision on its benchmark interest rate and the press conference which usually follows the meeting. Therefore, the euro did not profit as much from the euphoria regarding the new record high of the Dow Jones (yesterday) as was to be expected.

Nevertheless, risk appetite seems to have slightly increased and so the common currency was able to gain some ground this morning. According to experts, the rise equities marked yesterday has not necessarily been caused by a more positive economic situation - even if it has slightly improved compared to January - but rather by the extremely accomodative monetary policy of important national economies. The high amount of liquidity and low yields for other assets almost force market players to buy stocks, Adrian Zuercher of Credit Suisse says.

As to the euro, forex traders will probably remain cautious until tomorrow. This afternoon, data on the eurozone's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2012 will be released before the ECB decides on its benchmark interest rate. A change is not expected even though a cut in the benchmark interest rate has become more probable.

The euro last sold at 1.3037 USD. Resistances are seen at 1,3075 USD, at 1,31 USD, at 1,3125 USD, at 1,3160 USD and at 1,32 USD. Supports are at 1,3040 USD, at 1,3010 USD, at 1,30 USD and at 1,2980 dollar.

U.S.

After Hugo Chavez's decease, oil futures have remained steady during Asian trading this morning, the more so, as market sentiment is rather bullish anyway. The traded volume at NYMEX is about average for this time of day. Investors are now eyeing the performance of European markets, new cues from forex trading and for a series of economic data to be released in Europe and the USA, see economic calendar. Investors will also focus on the DOE's data on US oil stockpiles.

Significantly lower refinery run rates weighed on crude oil demand in the USA, which is why crude oil stockpiles increased more than expected in the reported week. Product inventories but moderately declined with regard to the retreating output. Therefore, the mere change in stockpiles as per API can be seen as bearish. Market participants now wait for the more detailed data from the DOE, due at 4.30 p.m., which also contain data on product demand.

According to the API, product inventories dropped whereas crude oil stockpiles increased as refinery run rates retreated in the reported week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 06-03)
380cst $614
180cst $653
MGO $1011

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 06-03)
380cst $614
180cst $656
MGO $1010

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Brent soared today gaining +$0.97. Paper for Mar is mirroring the gains with 180cst +$10.00 and for 380cst +$8.75, and Apr contracts with 180cst +$9.25, 380st +$7.25. The cargo market is losing foothold on 180cst -$2.16, but 380cst gained +$1.50 and MGO +$0.21.

In Singapore, demand on the delivered front was lower compared to Monday, with the high flat prices putting off buyers. On the ex-wharf front, demand moved with crude futures. Bids for the ex-wharf 380 CST were initially at $631.50/mt but this eventually moved up to $632-633/mt. Offers started off between $632/mt and eventually rose up to as high as $637/mt. Early trades were heard done between $632.50/mt and $633.50/mt, while those done just before the close of MOC were seen at $633-635/mt. The ex-wharf 380 CST was assessed at $634/mt, up $6/mt from Monday. For the ex-wharf 500 CST, offers were between $621/mt and $627/mt. The ex-wharf 500 CST was assessed at $623/mt, up $4.50/mt from Monday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $639
180 cst $643
MGO $925

Fujairah (delivered indications 06-03)

380cst $650
180cst $690
MGO $1030

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Demand was average at the ports of Rotterdam and Gothenburg while Antwerp and Hamburg saw mixed buying interest, sources in NWE said. Supplies reported to be tight for low sulfur fuel oil prompt deliveries at Rotterdam on the back of loading delays and due to sharp demand last week. Some suppliers were unable to offer prompt deliveries until March 11 for both HSFO and LSFO grades, while marine gasoil was available at any time, a bunker supplier said. A few suppliers experienced barge delays at the Vopak terminal, one bunker supplier said, adding that the loading speed was reduced due to a sulfur odour that sparked environmental concerns.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 608
(1.0 %) :$ 637
180cst: $ 638
(1.0 %):$ 667
MGO 0.1%S: $ 905