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Oil prices are slipping on bearish European economic news and worries the G20, currently in Moscow will not be able to formulate a joint approach to counter the recent currency moves. Just as the days before, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX traded sideways in a narrow range. Market participants were somewhat unsettled yesterday after the big energy agencies had reported contradictory outlooks for global oil demand and were partly eying the stand-off situation in Iran where there allegedly was some progress. It turned out that there was none. Oil futures tested first supports, both in London and in New York. In this phase, these were still strong, driving up prices close to their first resistances. Only with the release of the worse than expected GDP estimate out of the euro zone did oil futures breach supports, whereas ICE futures incurred heavier losses than NYMEX futures. The euro and stock market also nosedived downright after estimations showed a worse than expected performance of the European economy, especially in Europe’s largest economies, France and Germany. Selling pressure abated near the supports at 1,008.25 USD (G.Oil), at 117.35 USD (Brent) and 96.65 USD (WTI). In the afternoon, the better than expected U.S. unemployment figures drove up the American crude. During the session in New York, oil prices traded up again as investors bought gasoline contracts in face of concerns about supply shortages prior to changing winter to summer quality at the front month change in two weeks. WTI could benefit more from this development than ICE futures, surging above its first resistance before closing at its day’s high, which oil prices at ICE failed to reach.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 1.011,25 dollars on Thursday. This was 0.25 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 59,600 deals the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic is still bearish for G.Oil as its lines had crossed. But the RSI is still indicating an overbought market situation for ICE futures, favouring an upward correction. The upward trend channels are still intact. But more buying orders will only be triggered if G.Oil breaches its strong resistance at 1,014.00 USD. The Stochastic at the WTI chart has given off a small selling signal as its lines crossed. However, its lines have not diverged a lot yet and could converge again any time, especially because the RSI is moving towards the 70%-line and about to leave the neutral zone. Due to the selling signal with WTI, we take a rather neutral stance this morning.

U.S.

Nymex gaining: After slightly retreating last night, oil futures recovered again during Asian trading. Resurging concerns about the stand-off in Iran supports the oil market. Trading interest at NYMEX is far below average for this time of day. Traders are waiting for the European market to open and for developments at the forex market. There will be a series of economic data to be released in the USA today from which traders hope to get further prove of economic recovery in the country.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 13-02)
380cst $655
180cst $750
MGO $1060

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 13-02)
380cst $658
180cst $697
MGO $1072

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is slowing, but losing still with -$0.17. Paper for Mar is more bearish, losing with 180cst -$4.25 and for 380cst -$3.00, and Apr contracts with 180cst -$4.25, 380st -$3.00. The cargo market is starting to respond to crude and paper with 180cst -$1.35, 380cst -$1.24 and MGO -$0.48.

Singapore fuel oil markets fell slightly with 380cst HSFO settling app.$1/mt down from previous day’s close. Statistics from Singapore state agency IE Singapore showed that fuel oil stocks dropped 586,000 barrels to a three-week low of 18.841 million bbl in the week to February 13 because of lower western arrivals, in line with traders' expectations for fewer arbitrage cargoes in February and March. A total of 3.9 million tonnes of Western fuel oil is expected to berth at Asian ports in February, 25.7% lower than the previous month. Traders also expect around 4.1 million tonnes of arbitrage arrival in March, lower than 5.26 million tonnes in December. This morning markets are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $661
180 cst $663
MDO $1000

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

We have seen a fair amount of demand in the market with about 11kT in Antwerp alone causing congestion ahead of the weekend There are still higher premiums added in Rotterdam due to operational delays and limited barge accessibility creating problems for prompt in Rotterdam. Barges in particular were queuing for two-three days to be loaded.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 640
(1.0 %) :$ 686
180cst: $ 670
(1.0 %):$ 716
MGO 0.1%S: $ 1000