Thu 17 Jan 2013, 13:21 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



The price of oil rose closer to $95 a barrel on Thursday as Islamic militants took hostages at a natural gas plant in Algeria and U.S. crude supplies fell unexpectedly. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark oil for February delivery was up 42 cents to $94.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 96 cents to close at $94.24 a barrel on Wednesday. While at least 50 Algerian and foreign hostages have reportedly managed to escape from the gas plant 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) south of Algiers, the capital city, dozens more are still being held. The plant in the Sahara desert has been surrounded by the Algerian army. Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX have hardly changed Wednesday morning, trading in a rather narrow range in the first part of the day as fresh fundamental and technical clues were lacking. Neither the OPEC's monthly energy report, nor the economic data out of the USA, which widely met expectations, were able to give oil markets any clear direction. Only after the release of the US oil inventories data, did markets receive new signals, even though the reactions on the DOE's report were rather mixed. The data contained bullish as well as bearish factors. The bullish ones particularly gave a fillip to WTI and gasoline futures at NYMEX. This only briefly affected the other futures which tended to retreat little later. Since the WTI climbed and the Brent remained lower, the spread between the two crude oil sorts narrowed to less than 16 dollars per barrel.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 955.00 dollars on Wednesday. This was 5.75 dollars above Tuesday's settlement. With some 68,600 deals the traded volume was above average.

After the RSI breached 70%-line, a selling signal was triggered for WTI but more signal stayed out so far. The stochastic oscillator is slightly bearish for Brent but rather neutral for WTI and G.Oil. Potential for selling signals is currently seen with G.Oil if the 70%-line of the RSI is breached top-down and the lines of the stochastic cross, see also technical analysis. But without fresh signals, the technical view is considered as neutral at the moment since since the traders review their positions after the DoE data released yesterday and Seaway Pipeline was put into operation.

U.S.

Nymex Access neutral to bullish: After small profit-taking, oil futures slightly trade up from today's present lows. Trading interest at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Traders are waiting for the European market to open, for signals from forex trading and for economic data to be released today.

API: crude oil ±0.0; distillates -0.6;gasoline +4.1 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: crude oil -1.0; distillates +1.7;gasoline +1.9 million barrels vs previous week.
Survey: crude oil +1.8; distillates +1.3;gasoline +2.8 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-01)
380cst $623
180cst $696
MGO $1020

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 16-01)
380cst $631
180cst $668
MGO $1015

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is stable still with +$0.87. Paper for Jan are bullish, rising with 180cst +$4.00 and for 380cst +$3.85 , Feb contracts are rising as well with 180cst +$4.00, 380st +$3.85. The cargo market is bearish, dropping with 180cst -$7.88, 380cst -$8.13 and MGO -$1.39.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices fell app. $8.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday. There were no significant changes to the fundamentals. The delivered bunker premium remained at around $4.5 above cargo prices. This morning the markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $626
180 cst $634
MDO $940

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

There were a few suppliers who were unable to supply for prompt deliveries due to busy schedules. The port of Rotterdam was experiencing difficulties with LSFO for prompt deliveries due to operational delays. Due to the tightness of LSFO in Antwerp the premiums are expected to be higher.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 610
(1.0 %) :$ 639
180cst: $ 640
(1.0 %):$ 669
MGO 0.1%S: $ 950

MGO  

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