Image: Global Risk Management

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Yesterday saw some volatility in oil prices, but at the end of the day, Brent oil price ended slightly lower - and is currently trading around $75.4

Oil market participants continue to focus on a potential OPEC/non-OPEC production increase along with steady increase in U.S. crude oil production.

Tonight, the weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be followed closely. The data is one day delayed due to Monday's U.S. holiday and the same goes for the EIA oil inventory report which is published tomorrow. Consensus is a build of around 2.2. mio. barrels of crude - last week surprised with a 5.7 mio. build in crude, smaller builds in gasoline and distillates stocks.

A potential 1 mio. barrels' OPEC/non-OPEC production increase will likely not be decided until the official meeting 22 June,. However, likely next week, Saudi Arabia will publish its official selling price (OSP) for July to Asia. Last month, the huge oil producer hiked its June OSP to the highest since 2014 with a premium of $1.9/barrel to the Oman/Dubai average. If the Saudis lower the July OSP, this could be a sign of a potential output boost. Recently, the U.S. has increased its crude exports to Asia, from 260,000 barrels per day in the first five months of 2017 to around 620,000 barrels per day this year.

On the economic data front, a row of European data is coming up, from French GDP, German employment data to Italian 10-year BTP bonds. Later today, U.S. ADP nonfarm payrolls is published ahead of Friday's closely followed non-farm payroll data. Overnight, Chinese Manufacturing PMI is released.