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The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that global oil demand in 2015 is expected to grow by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), up 0.2 mb/d on its previous report and the fastest pace in five years, as economic growth solidifies and consumers respond to lower oil prices. Persistent macro-economic strength supports above-trend growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2016, IEA states.

The Paris-based organization reports that world oil supply fell nearly 0.6 mb/d in July, mainly on lower non-OPEC output. OPEC crude production held steady near a three-year high. As lower prices and spending cuts take their toll, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to slow sharply from a 2014 record of 2.4 mb/d to 1.1 mb/d this year and then contract by 200 kb/d in 2016.

OPEC crude supply inched 15,000 b/d lower in July to 31.79 mb/d as Saudi output eased and offset record high Iraqi production and increased Iranian flows.

OECD inventories rose counter-seasonally by 9.9 mb to hit another all-time high of 2,916 mb in June with their surplus-to-average levels widening to a record 210 mb. As the seasonal restocking of 'other products' continued apace, refined products by end-month covered 31.3 mb days of forward demand, 0.2 days above that seen at the end of May.

Global refinery runs reached a record 80.6 mb/d in July, 3.2 mb/d up on a year earlier, but fissures are showing. High distillate stocks have pushed cracks in Singapore down to their lowest level since 2009 and prompted run cuts in Asia. Elsewhere, especially in the US, still-soaring gasoline cracks supported high margins and throughput.