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Denmark-based A/S Global Risk Management has forecast bearish oil price levels during the third quarter of 2015.

In its latest report, entitled 'The Oil Market Quarterly Outlook July 15', Global Risk analyses the supply/demand balance, where demand is slowly picking up pace in a well-supplied oil market.

The firm explains that a "major dark horse" is the deal/no deal on Iran's nuclear programme, which could bring more oil into the market if sanctions are lifted.

Greece and a potential U.S. interest rate hike later this year take centre stage when it comes to financials. Greece voted 'no' to accepting the bailout terms presented by the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF); the financial markets are uncertain as to what the consequences will be, and this uncertainty spills over to the commodities market also.

Global Risk points out that Libya - though holding the largest oil reserves in Africa - remains at low output levels due to continued unrest. Fighting in Yemen continues and the location near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait will be monitored closely. Iraq continues to increase production despite the turmoil in the country, and is exporting oil at record levels.

The Global Oil Strength Index (GOSI)

The Global Oil Strength Index, or GOSI, was introduced by Global Risk in 2010. The GOSI is a single number between 0 and 100 that signals Global Risk Management's expectations for the development of oil prices. A reading below 50 indicates a declining trend and above 50 an increasing trend.

Global Risk calculates the GOSI by assigning a strength rating or index for each of three factors (Fundamentals, Financials and Geopoliticals) and then calculating a weighted average based on the three strength ratings.

Fundamentals - covering the supply and demand balance.

Financials - covering speculators' interest and the development of the financial market.

Geopolitics - covering the situation in unstable oil-producing regions of the world.

Fundamentals: July 2015 - Rating: 45 (same as in its April 2015 forecast).

In the report, Global Risk said: "Demand continues to grow, but so does supply. The number of active rigs in the U.S. has started to pick up after more than 1/2 year of decrease and Iranian oil could come online - depending on the deal/no deal this month."

Financials: July 2015 - Rating: 45 (same as in its April 2015 forecast).

Global Risk said: "Greece and potential soon-to-come U.S. interest rate hike taking centre stage. The 'no' vote by the Greek population leads to unknown territory for the eurozone. The timing of the Fed raising interest rates is uncertain, but most likely, the first 0.25% rate hike is already priced in by now."

Geopolitics: July 2015 - Rating: 50 (same as in its April 2015 forecast).

Global Risk said: "Fear of unrest in Yemen spreading and potentially closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remains. Libya continues to produce around 70% below 2011 levels. Despite unrest in parts of the country, Iraq continues to produce oil at record levels. Iran and six world powers are still working on bringing a deal into effect."

GOSI - Rating: July 2015 - Rating: 47 (same as in its April 2015 forecast) - The GOSI is below 50, indicating that Global Risk's oil price expectation is bearish.

Average price forecasts:

Brent Crude (US$ per barrel)

Q3 2015 - 60
Q4 2015 - 62
Q1 2016 - 66
Q2 2016 - 65

3.5% Rotterdam Barges (US$ per tonne)

Q3 2015 - 299
Q4 2015 - 314
Q1 2016 - 340
Q2 2016 - 337

0.1% CIF NWE Cargoes (US$ per tonne)

Q3 2015 - 548
Q4 2015 - 562
Q1 2016 - 589
Q2 2016 - 581

380cst Singapore Cargoes (US$ per tonne)

Q3 2015 - 325
Q4 2015 - 340
Q1 2016 - 368
Q2 2016 - 362

0.5% Singapore Gasoil (US$ per tonne)

Q3 2015 - 544
Q4 2015 - 566
Q1 2016 - 603
Q2 2016 - 596

3% US Gulf Waterborne (US$ per tonne)

Q3 2015 - 305
Q4 2015 - 321
Q1 2016 - 349
Q2 2016 - 343

N2 Heating Oil (US$ per tonne)

Q3 2015 - 540
Q4 2015 - 559
Q1 2016 - 592
Q2 2016 - 585