Thu 27 Dec 2012, 13:02 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil prices were mixed in thin Asian trade today on continued uncertainty on whether a deal to avert the US fiscal cliff could be reached by the year-end deadline, analysts said. New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February slid 10 cents to $90.88 a barrel while Brent North Sea crude for February delivery added 14 cents to $111.21. On Christmas Eve, the oil market remained relatively calm with slight downward tests. Generally, there was not much movement during trading on Monday, December 24. After a one-day break on December 25, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX resumed trading on the day after Christmas but with a verily low trade volume. After a quite morning, trade became more dynamic towards the afternoon. U.S. economic data were mixed but investors regarded the better than expected S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index as a supporting factor, boosting oil prices. Developments in the Middle East with increasing tensions and riots are seen as another bullish factor, as well as the USA resuming their budget talks, which have to be brought to a conclusion this week. According to the Treasury Department, the United States will reach the debt ceiling by Monday, December 31. Yesterday, oil futures managed to breach important resistances thanks to the increasing risk premium for oil from the Middle East, the rising hope for a resolution of the U.S. budget debacle and the positive U.S. housing market data. Numerous stop-loss buying orders that had been triggered lead to a strong upward reaction in thin trading, with Brent rising to 111.52 dollars and WTI reaching a 2-month high at 91.30 dollars. Oil prices came back from yesterday's highs this morning but consolidated at a high level.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 941.25 dollars on Wednesday. This was 13.75 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 100,000 deals the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic oscillator at ICE and NYMEX indicates a buying signal after the indicator's lines had crossed yesterday, But due to the steep upward reaction, this buying signals may already have been processed, not least because upside occurred in thin trading during the holidays. This could tempt traders to profit-taking but in all, the technical analysis remains slightly bullish due to the stochastic indicator.

U.S.

Nymex Access bullish: In early trading, cautious profit-taking from yesterday's price rally can be observed, which remains, however, limited and futures consolidate at a high level. Trading interest at NYMEX is slightly below average for this time of day. Market participants are waiting for the European market to open, for advances in U.S. budget talks and for the upcoming economic data.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 26-12)
380cst $629
180cst $669
MGO $1023

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 26-12)
380cst $633
180cst $673
MGO $1005

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is now changing direction with it slowing in its gaining +$2.19. Paper went up for Dec 180cst +$8.80 and for 380cst +$9.00 , Jan contracts were trading with 180cst +$8.05, 380st +$9.30. The cargo market stayed in rather neutral position with 180cst +$0.78, 380cst +$0.88 and MGO -$0.38.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $613
180 cst $623
MDO $940

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Most the ports in NWE experienced difficulties with prompt deliveries due to existing or expected barge tightness. Some bunker suppliers noted that loading terminals were expected to operate for only few days due to holidays and had restricted fuel volumes on the loading side as well, sources said. Rotterdam continued to experience difficulties with low sulfur fuel oil availabilities.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 581
(1.0 %) :$ 604
180cst: $ 611
(1.0 %):$ 634
MGO 0.1%S: $ 931

MGO  

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