Tue 6 Nov 2012, 13:42 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Brent crude held around $108 per barrel on Tuesday, as uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections and renewed worries about Greece and the euro zone crisis headed traders' concerns.

After Friday's decline, oil futures stuck to their soft tendency on Monday morning renewedly testing their downward slack. The weaker euro, resp. the stronger dollar and the slightly bearish technical situation favored some profit taking. Ahead of the presidential elections in the USA, market participants have avoided to raise their riskier assets. Thus, oil futures have pulled back from their lows in the course of the day, trading sideways until the evening. Resistance lines at 927.75 dollars for the Gasoil, at 106.50 dollars for the Brent and at 85.25 dollars for the WTI crude have limited gains. Only in late trade have quotations surprisingly exceeded these marks triggering more technical buying orders. Accordingly, oil prices have surged, settling near their new highs. Some market participants say that the rise had been caused by new tensions in the Near East, where two Saudi border guards have been killed by al-Qaida members in an exchange of fire. In addition to this, the IAEO says Iran is still not willing to make any concessions regarding its nuclear program. Since the time when these reports have been published doesn't match the time when oil futures have started to rise (at about 8.30 p.m.), most analysts think that it has been a merely technical reaction - as so many investors had chosen a bearish position earlier.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 922.50 dollars on Monday. This was 2.50 dollars below Friday's settlement. With some 35,700 deals the traded volume was below average.

NEWS: Presumed members of al-Qaida have tried to trespass the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Then there was an exchange of fire in which two Saudi border guards have been killed. In all, eleven attackers are said to have been detained.

While the stochastic indicator is bullish at ICE charts this morning, it is still bearish for the WTI crude after yesterday's selling signal. The RSI gave a buying signal for the Brent yesterday evening but the resistance lines at ICE remain strong, still limiting the upward potential. As long as this is the case, technical analysts still assess the technical situation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex access bullish: Oil prices have traded sideways in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. After Monday's late rise oil futures have remained in a rather narrow range which is reflecting the cautious tone among market players. The traded volume is on average. Investors now eye the development at stock markets and new clues from forex trade. Moreover they are looking ahead to some economic indicators, the API's data on oil inventories (published at 10.30 p.m.) and the elections in the USA.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 5-11)

380cst $598
180cst $703
MGO $1000

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 5-11)

380cst $605
180cst $698
MGO $1010

Singapore (correct as per 14:30hrs LT-delivered indications)

Crude is bullish with WTI +$1.01. Singapore paper is bullish, with +$5.30 for 180cst and +$4.50 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst +$6.10 and 380cst +$5.20 with MGO contracts Nov +$1.45 and Dec +$1.45 The cargo market is not reacting same as paper, falling with 180 cst -$17.46, 380cst -$17.40 and MGO -$2.82.

The Singapore fuel oil markets plunged more than -$17.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday. The market is heavily weighed down by ample supply coupled with soft demand and the forward price structure is sliding deeper into contango. The delivered bunker premiums were up between around $6.0 to $9.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading higher.

380 cst $600
180 cst $610
MGO $920

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

High sulfur bunker fuel oil premiums for prompt delivery in Rotterdam remain firm on ongoing delays at some loading installations and despite ample supply in the ex-wharf barge market. LSFO avails are good.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 580
(1.0 %) :$ 617
180cst: $ 610
(1.0 %):$ 647
MGO 0.1%S: $935

MGO  

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