Fri 17 Aug 2012, 13:28 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Even though the weekend lies ahead, market players are reluctant to take profit. At ICE as well as at NYMEX oil prices were rather volatile during morning trade. First supports have been tested but have remained strong for the time being providing no decisive clues as to where the direction might go.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX consolidated in a narrow range in electronic morning trading, zigzagging between support and resistance lines without being able to breach either one for good. After the opening of NYMEX session oil initially lost some ground as investors digested some contrasting US indicators. While building permits rose in July, initial jobless claims disappointed by also increasing more than expected and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped as did the number of people building new homes. The stronger euro/weaker dollar could'nt help oil prices up at this time of the day. In a market largely dominated by the bulls, worries over production losses in the North Sea, a higher-than-expected draw in US crude oil stocks and rising tensions in the Middle East eventually helped oil up later in the session. Resistance lines at ICE and NYMEX were breached, triggering a series of technical buying orders. At 987.00 dollars (G.Oil), 117,03 dollars (Brent) and 95.75 dollars (WTI), oil prices hit fresh three-month highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 977.25 dollars on Thursday. This was 8.25 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 65,900 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic indicator is neutral at the ICE charts this morning but is still giving a faint bullish signal at the WTI chart. Due to a lack of fresh momentum the medium-term uptrends remain solid, tempting technical analysts to stay bullish today, even though the Stochastic oscillator hardly lends support.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures are losing ground in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning after hitting fresh long-term highs last night. Traders are still being cautious, covering their long positions ahead of the weekend. The traded volume is about on average. Market participants eye the performance of stock and forex markets and today's economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-8)

380cst $663
180cst $698
MGO $1020

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 16-8)

380cst $653
180cst $696
MGO $1025

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing, but not yet turning with WTI +$0.02. Singapore paper is turning bearish with -$1.95 for 180cst and -$1.45 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst -$1.50 and 380cst -$1.50 with MGO contracts Sep -$0.15 and Oct -$0.10. The cargo market is back up again, gaining with 180cst +$11.35, 380cst +$11.04 and MGO +$2.17.

The Singapore market is closed this coming Monday for public holiday and will reopen on Tuesday, so the next week will probably see a slow start. Bunker swap papers gained as well. Front of the curve was stronger yesterday with September prices gaining approx. $4.75/mt. Gains were slightly lower for the back end of the curve papers. Markets trade slightly higher this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $670
180 cst $681
MGO $970

Fujairah (delivered indications 17-8)

380cst $680
180cst $698
MGO $1030

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA continues with the bullishness. Continuing loading delays up to three days are reported. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets and a heavy maintenance programme for September with two important North Sea oilfields set for a one month closure. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 653
(1.0 %) :$ 712
180cst: $ 691
(1.0 %):$ 754
MGO 0.1%S: $970

MGO  

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