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As expected, oil prices have traded lower during morning trade, given the lack of technical impulsions and the decline of both equities and the euro. After the release of disappointing German and European economic indicators the euro extended its losses. Thus the Euro weighed on oil prices, as did retreating equities. Several supports have been breached at ICE and NYMEX. As there are no further economic data scheduled for today, analysts expect hardly any new impulsions in the afternoon.

Oil futures showed a steady tendency in London and New York on Friday bolstered by the slightly bullish technical constellation. The lines of the stochastic indicator had crossed, triggering buying signals for the Brent and the G.Oil. Positive German (and British) economic data gradually buoyed investors' risk appetite in the course of the day. Consequently, equities and the euro gained ground and supported oil futures. In the afternoon oil prices breached first resistance lines, reinforcing the upward movement by technical buying orders. After the stochastic indicator provided first buying signals in the morning, the RSI did so for the Brent later, when it crossed the 30%-line bottom-up. In the course of the evening, market participants took some profit, however. The NYMEX C.Oil contract for May delivery expired causing some volatility. The new front month is now WTI crude for June delivery. The contracts for May delivery settled at 103.05 dollars at 8.30 p.m.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 1,002.25 dollars on Friday. This was +6.25 dollars above Thursday's settlement. With some 62,200 contracts the traded volume was above average.

OPEC: in the face of the oil producing countries' low reserve capacities, the OPEC has decided to raise its production capacity by 6 million barrels per day by 2016. If the buffer of the output is low, the OPEC's influence fades, as speculations on futures shortages increase, even if production is raised. To regain its influence on the market, the OPEC needs to increase its capacities again, to create a such buffer and to ensure supply.

After the stochastic indicator had already given some buying signals at ICE charts Friday morning, the RSI did so as well for the Brent later on Friday. This morning the stochastic indicator remains bullish at ICE, whereas it is still neutral for the WTI crude. If the indicators lines cross for the WTI crude in the course of the day, there will be a fresh buying impulsion. Technical analysts thus take a slightly bullish stance, anticipating modest upward movements. Analysts also point at the potential impact of forex and stock trading on oil futures. Fluctuations regarding the euro and equities are expected to bring about the decisive impulsions today as risk appetite will depend on these factors.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures have traded slightly higher in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. The traded volume has been far below average. Investors now eye the performances of stock and forex markets and the few European economic indicators that are to be published this morning.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-4)

380cst $705
180cst $745
MGO $1010

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 23-4)

380cst $707
180cst $743
MGO $1050

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is looking for direction with WTI -$0.15. Singapore paper is slightly bearish still with -$2.50 for 180cst and -$2.25 for 380cst for May, and for June 180 cst -$2.50 and 380cst -$2.25 with MGO contracts May +$0.44 and June +$0.42. The cargo market mixed with 180cst -$1.58, 380cst -$1.92 and MGO +$0.12.
v The Singapore fuel oil markets fell more than -$1.5 last Friday morning. The latest Singapore Heavy residual inventory reported a huge draw of -4.28 mbbl to 16.39 mbbl, a drop of about 20% likely to be absorbed by regional exports. The delivered bunker premiums slipped slightly to app. $6.75 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained app. $1.75/mt at the front of the forward curve and app.$1/mt more at the backend. This morning markets are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $708
180 cst $718
MGO $980

Fujairah (delivered indications 23-4)

380cst $720
180cst $745
MGO $1050

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The week ended on a bullish note, with fuel prices tracking crude. Although local demand was lagging, the continued barge congestion in Rotterdam and Antwerp is still causing 2-3 day loading delays at the local refineries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 682
(1.0 %) :$ 745
180cst: $ 710
(1.0 %):$ 763
MGO 0.1%S: $987