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Oil prices have fallen below their first supports, whereas product futures still find some support. Crude oil futures in particular see some downside given the increase in Iraq's oil exports and given investors' confidence in supply shortages of Iranian oil are being compensated for. Better than expected Chinese manufacturing figures counterweight the bearish EU data, more direction is to be expected from the US manufacturing report, due this afternoon.

After Thursday's price collapse, short positions were liquidated on Friday, undercutting oil prices. The bearish technical momentum and mixed economic indicators were not apt to give markets decisive impulses and thus trade remained lackluster and quiet. Resistances proved strong but some supports were breached. In late session prices suddenly jumped to intraday highs after the Obama administration announced fresh sanctions against Iran, but shed all of their earlier gains soon after and settled lower in London and in New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at at 1,014.25 dollars on Friday. This was 3.50 dollars below Thursday's settlement. With some 37,100 contracts the traded volume was below average.

The two lines of the Stochastic oscillator are converging, signalling that the bearish influence of the indicator is gradually declining. The RSI indicator at the WTI and the gasoil chart is set to breach the 30% line which would give markets a buying signal. Technical analysts are neutral this morning, predicting a consolidation given that the traded volume is expected to remain well below average before the long Easter weekend.

U.S.

Nymex acces easing. Oil futures are modestly lower in Europe and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, weighed down by a somewhat stronger dollar and speculation on a release of strategic petroleum reserves. The traded volume is below average. Investors eye forex trade and a string of European and US economic indicators today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 2-4)

380cst $717
180cst $745
MGO $1043

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 2-4)

380cst $719
180cst $747
MGO $1046

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing, but not yet turning again with WTI -$0.12 Singapore paper back on its bullish track with +$2.00 for 180cst and +$2.00 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$1.70 and 380cst -$0.41 with MGO contracts Apr -$0.41 and May -$0.41. The cargo market is reacting to last week bearishness, losing with 180cst -$8.55, 380cst -$8.51 and MGO -$1.42.

The Singapore fuel oil markets came off more than -$8.5 during the morning last Friday. The Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a build of +1.4 mbbl to 23.44mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums slipped to around $3.0 above cargo prices at the end of the week. Bunker fuel oil swaps posted gains of app. $1.75/mt along the curve for 3.5% FOB barges. East/west spread remains rather broad trading around $42 for April. Viscosity spread between 180cst and 380cst papers remains above $11/mt along the forward curve. Markets are trading higher this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $730
180 cst $740
MGO $1015

Fujairah (delivered indications 3-4)

380cst $737
180cst $757
MGO $1050

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA markets are trading down on bearish EU economic data. Two fixtures have been reported, which will eat into the avails of hsfo. with loading congestion lurking. The Lsfo shortages are easing, with more product becoming available. A contango structure is seen for April-May in Rotterdam, suggesting increasing prices.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 703
(1.0 %) :$ 755
180cst: $ 728
(1.0 %):$ 780
MGO 0.1%S: $1006