Fri 30 Mar 2012, 14:21 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil futures at NYMEX have consolidated around yesterday's settlement level in a very thin trade this morning. Technical factors have been predominant, as fundamental news were lacking and investors have been waiting for US economic data that are to be published this afternoon. After the WTI crude has neither breached its first support nor its first resistance, the contract now trades sideways in a narrow range. The Brent has exceeded its first resistance line around noon, in the wake of gaining European equities. G.Oil has likewise climbed, hovering slightly below its first resistance by now. ICE futures are supported by the current situation regarding Total's Elgin field in the North Sea. It is yet unclear, whether Total is able to fully control the leak and when. Safety measures might also affect oil platforms near the Elgin-platform.

Yesterday, oil prices showed a bearish tendency on a dollar gaining strength and the selling impulsions provided by the bearish technical constellation. After supports at 1,020.75 dollars for the Gasoil, at 123.65 dollars for the Brent and at 104.70 dollars for the WTI crude proved strong, quotations regained some ground in the early afternoon. Little later, investors took some profit. At this moment, the euro was down almost half a dollar compared to Wednesday night, prompting market players to take some profit at oil markets. Disappointing economic data and temporary losses at stock exchanges also weighed on oil prices. Supports which had remained strong until then were breached, triggering technical selling orders and pushing oil futures at ICE and NYMEX further down. Supports at 103.35 for the WTI Crude and at 1,015.75 dollars for the G.Oil remained strong. After the resistances were breached during late trade, however, prices declined even more. Compared to the other futures, the WTI Crude marked the most losses, falling to a 1.5 month-low of 102.13 dollars.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at at 1,017.75 dollars on Thursday. This was 6.25 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 36,800 contracts the traded volume was below average.

OPEC: Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi stated Yesterday that renewed nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers are expected to take place on April 13. A venue for the talks will be finalized in the coming days.

The stochastic indicator at ICE and NYMEX is still bearish this morning. The RSI for the Gasoil and the WTI crude may cross the 30%-line bottom-up in the course of the day, which might lead to a buying impulsion, see also technical analysis. Without any new impulsions, technical analysts take a slightly bearish stance pointing to the stochastic's impact. Given yesterday's technically based profit taking, most of the downward potential has already been spent.

U.S.

Nymex acces easing. Oil futures hardly changed in Europe and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, after yesterday's price jumps. The stronger euro, resp. the weaker dollar, may provide some support, however. The traded volume is about on average. Investors eye the European session, forex trade and today's economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-3)

380cst $720
180cst $755
MGO $1043

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-3)

380cst $723
180cst $757
MGO $1045

Singapore(correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is dropping like a stone with WTI -$2.43 Singapore paper more cautious, losing with -$8.45 for 180cst and -$8.75 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$8.45 and 380cst -$8.50 with MGO contracts Apr +$1.40 and May -$1.39. The cargo market is looking for direction with 180cst +$0.10, 380cst -$0.26 and MGO +$0.07.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were flat during yesterday morning. Market remains weighted down by heavy supply in the market. The delivered bunker premiums were seen app. $3.5 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost in a range of $7.0-8.0/mt along the curve.This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $729
180 cst $738
MGO $1012

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA markets saw little demand, with Antwerp more lively than Rotterdam. Two fixtures have been reported, which will eat into the avails of hsfo. with loading congestion lurking. The Lsfo shortages are easing, with more product becoming available. A contango structure is seen for April-May in Rotterdam, suggesting increasing prices.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 704
(1.0 %) :$ 760
180cst: $ 731
(1.0 %):$ 782
MGO 0.1%S: $1008

MGO  

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