Mon 26 Mar 2012, 13:12 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices were easing somewhat this morning as investors wonder how much the conflict over Iran's nuclear programm might disrupt global crude supplies. On Friday, reports said Iran's crude exports fell sharply last month, suggesting sanctions imposed by Western powers have begun to impact that country's economy.

NYMEX and ICE futures consolidated in electronic morning trading, the weak dollar preventing market participants from taking profit, when news that Iranian oil exports dropped by 300.000 bpd in March initiated a short-lived price rally based on automatically triggered buying orders. Prices at ICE and NYMEX shot above resistance lines but eased short after to consolidate on a high level for the rest of the session. The weak dollar supported prices also in Asian trading and this morning in Europe.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at at 1,029.25 dollars on Friday. This was 15.25 dollars above Thursday's settlement. With some 43,000 contracts the traded volume was below average.

The Stochastic oscillator is neutral at ICE and NYMEX charts this morning, giving market participants no clear signals. The brent and the G.Oil hit the upper limit of their trendchannels on Friday so technical analysts reckon that, without fresh signals from Stochastic or RSI, prices will consolidate today. The medium-term range for the WTI is seen between 104.30 and 108.70 dollars. Without technical momentum, the dollar will influence oil prices today.

U.S.

Nymex acces losing. Oil futures are consolidating in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. The traded volume is on average. Market players eye European stock markets, the dollar and some economic indicators today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-3)

380cst $727
180cst $762
MGO $1063

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 23-3)

380cst $729
180cst $764
MGO $1066

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bouncing up with WTI +$0.47 Singapore paper is mirroring crue with +$2.70 for 180cst and +$2.30 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$2.70 and 380cst +$2.30 with MGO contracts Apr +$1.02 and May +$1.02. The cargo market is looking for direction still with 180cst +$0.90, 380cst +$0.39 and MGO -$0.08.

The Singapore fuel oil markets inched up marginally by $0.25-1.0 last Friday morning. The fundamentals seem to be moving to be more balanced going forward with strengthening cargo premiums. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around $5.0 above cargo prices last Friday. Bunker fuel swaps were up app. $8.5/mt at the front for Singapore papers, while backend was app. $1/mt stronger. Markets are trading slightly down this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $735
180 cst $746
MGO $1020

Fujairah (delivered indications 26-3)

380cst $740
180cst $762
MGO $1052

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Last week ended on a bullish note, with firm interest of buyers, eager to fix before the weekend. The Lsfo shortages are easing, with more product becoming available. A contango structure is seen for April-May in Rotterdam, suggesting increasing prices.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 703
(1.0 %) :$ 760
180cst: $ 727
(1.0 %):$ 765
MGO 0.1%S: $1015

BP   MGO  

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