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The bullish impetus of the Iranian stoppage of exports to EU countries still continues. The possible outlet for Iranian crude to Asia seems less presumable, and could cause a significant output cut.

Yesterday, oil futures began the day higher in London and New York, supported by some good news from Chinese banks as investors were eyeing the EU decision on a second bailout package for Greece. Due to the US holiday (President's Day) and the late result of the EU talks there was little market momentum and a lack of direction. Resistance lines at ICE and NYMEX proved strong, tempting traders to take some profit. At the end of the day oil prices had consolidated in a narrow technical range at a high level in thin trade. The brent-WTI spread narrowed to 14,70 dollars for the April contracts.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 1,012.25 dollars on Monday. This was 9.75 dollars above Friday's settlement. With some 30,400 contracts the traded volume was well below average.

While the Stochastic oscillator at the WTI chart still gives no clear signals the one at the brent chart is slightly bearish after its two lines have crossed. Yet technical analysts reckon that a selling signal will only be triggered if the brent's 118.90 dollar support and the psychological support of 1,000.00 dollars for the gasoil will be breached. The next significant WTI support is seen at 102.00 dollars. Should the supports prove strong, prices are seen consolidating on their high level.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures trade little changed vs last night in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, the strong euro/weak dollar preventing that support lines are being hit. The traded volume is significantly above average after Monday's US holiday when NYMEX floor trade stayed closed and electronic trading was halted from 7.15 p.m. to 0.00 a.m. Investors' focus is already set on the new WTI front month April, the contract for March delivery expiring tonight. Market participants will eye forex markets for direction as there are only a couple of economic indicators on the agenda today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 20-2)

380cst $717
180cst $758
MGO $1058
Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 20-2)

380cst $719
180cst $760
MGO $1061

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is cooling, but gaining still with WTI +$0.41 Singapore paper is losing with -$5.05 for 180cst and -$5.50 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst -$5.05 and 380cst -$5.50 with MGO Mar and Apr contracts unchanged. The cargo market is starting to react to paper, losing with 180cst -$3.12, 380cst -$4.51 and MGO -$0.20.

The Singapore fuel oil markets came off more than -$3.0 during the morning yesterday, tracking the softening crude movement. Despite the lower outright prices, demand was said to be still soft which also added some pressure on the bunker premiums. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around $10.5 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained $4-5/mt at the front and up to $8.5/mt the backend of the forward curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. This resulted in less pronounced backwardation. This morning markets are trading lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $736
180 cst $746
MGO $1013

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA saw restrained trading activity Friday on mixed expectations about crude oil prices, which softened day-on-day, and bearish expectations about the 3.5% FOB Rotterdam barge market, as the arbitrage to Singapore was considered closed. There is still tight availability for prompt material. High premiums for prompt product are seen. Antwerp is still experiencing some low sulfur fuel oil tightness due to shortages at local refineries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 694
(1.0 %) :$ 712
180cst: $ 714
(1.0 %):$ 741
MGO 0.1%S: $1000