Tue 14 Feb 2012, 12:48 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



The optimistic sentiment in the financial markets has also shown some impact on the oil market. Around noon, quotations have climbed. Particularly the WTI Crude has gained ground and even breached its first resistance. Apart from the stronger euro and equities, reports on the Iranian parliament's agreement over a supply stop for crude oil to the EU have supported oil futures. Furthermore, more and more shipping companies are acting according to the EU's sanctions and don't make for Iranian ports anymore. Given that the data regarding the US oil inventories, which are due tomorrow, are expected to be bearish, gains are likely to be limited however.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX opened higher in electronic morning trading, taking their cues from optimism about the situation in Greece, where the parliament had eventually approved the austerity measures needed for the country to receive its second bailout, boosting the euro and equity markets and helping oil up. When first resistance lines at the ICE (1,002.75 dollars G.Oil and 118>60 dollars brent) proved strong, market participants took profit. Selling pressures rose when the two lines of the Stochastic oscillator at the ICE futures crossed and triggered selling signals. The G.Oil fell through several supports until the 987.75 dollar support proved strong. US benchmark crude futures were supported in a chaotic trading session as a failure of CME Globex electronic oil-trading platform shut out scores of traders and forced all trading onto the NYMEX floor. Brokers rushed into the normally sleepy oil-futures pit in the final half-hour of trading to execute orders that couldn't be completed electronically. WTI futures settled higher in the end but the 101.00 dollar resistance could not be breached.

OPEC: The new sanctions on Iran make an impact on the country's ability to export its oil. The IEA said in a report earlier Friday that the measures are "causing marine insurers and shipowners to be doubly cautious" and "will likely complicate crude shipments" from Iran. AP Moller Maersk AS said Friday it stopped taking new orders to transport Iranian crude as a European oil embargo is already complicating Tehran's oil sailings even before it comes into force, adding existing commitments would be honored.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 996.50 dollars on Monday. This was 0.25 dollars below Friday's settlement. With some 86,500 contracts the traded volume was well above average.

The two lines of the Stochastic oscillator at the Brent and gasoil chart have crossed Monday, giving markets a selling signal. The WTI is still at the overbought level but doesn't give any clear signals yet. Technical analysts forecast prices to consolidate today at their high level but see some downside should the RSI fall through its 70% line or the Stochastic's two lines at the NYMEX charts cross.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures are in consolidation in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, taking their breath after Monday's chaotic session. The traded volume is above average. Market participants will eye the situation in Greece, the release of US petroleum inventories and a string of US and euro zone economic indicators today.

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30(API) and Thursday at 17:00(DOE)

Crude oil +1.9; distillates -0.9; gasoline -0.1 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 13-2)

380cst $712
180cst $752
MGO $1058

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 13-2)

380cst $714
180cst $754
MGO $1061

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining bullish momentum with WTI +$1.20 Singapore paper is ignoring it, losing with -$10.55 for 180cst and -$9.85 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst -$9.55 and 380cst -$9.35 with MGO Feb contracts at -$1.25 and for Mar -$1.49. The cargo market is mixed with 180cst -$2.01, 380cst -$2.46 and MGO +$0.31.

The Singapore fuel oil markets started the week with prices coming lower more than -$2.0 during the morning. The ex-wharf sellers were more aggressive as the delivered bunker premiums weakened to around $14.0 above cargo prices. Markets are trading lower this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $726
180 cst $734
MGO $991

Fujairah (delivered indications 14-2)

380cst $730
180cst $749
MGO $1050

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

In Northwest Europe bunker fuel prices were up on stronger outright oil prices and bullish sentiment on the 3.5% hsfo barge market, with another VLCC fixture, and cold weather conditions underpinning the market. High Chinese refinery demand is supporting the arbitrage to Singapore.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 691
(1.0 %) :$ 726
180cst: $ 707
(1.0 %):$ 755
MGO 0.1%S: $985


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