---

Trends

Rotterdam (ARA) fuel oil - Trading USD 8 higher

Singapore fuel oil - Trading USD 6 higher

US Gulf fuel oil - Expected to open unchanged

Greece closer to sealing the deal? (Brent: USD 117.8)

Greece Prime Minister Papademos is heading to Brussels today, but with an incomplete deal - the Greek leaders failed to agree on a reform and austerity programme - seems like one issue remains to be solved. "I am leaving for Brussels in a short while with the hope that the Eurogroup meeting will be held, and a positive decision on the new programme will be taken," Papademos stated. Greece hope keeps the EUR/USD up.

Iran update

The European Union will ask for India's help in convincing Iran to abandon its nuclear programme and return to the negotiating table, according to EU President Herman Van Rompuy . India imports 12 percent of its oil from Iran at present (approx. USD 11 billion/year).

The cold weather in Europe is expected to be around until late February - keeping up the demand for diesel and heating oil.

Fueling the dragon: China's demand for oil is still increasing

China’s demand for oil is expected to be up 5 % in 2012 to 9.9 mill BpD from up 6.8 % in 2011.

Release: EIA oil data (Consensus)

Weekly oil inventory data up 3.11 mio. barrels - forecast 2.45 mio. barrels. The total oil stock build was driven by products as demand remained flat.

Crude: 0.3 mio. barrels (2.4 mio.)
Distillates: 1.17 mio. barrels (-0.67 mio.)
Gasoline: 1.63 mio. barrels (0.72 mio.)
Refinery utilization: 1% (-0.4%)

Technical update and outlook

Techs are still an important driver in the oil market – the temporary halt upwards is broken – we see a slight increase in prices today. The next resistance point will be around 118.53 and the support level will be around 116.45. It still looks like a 120-attempt to us. Even though the market seems overbought, we expect the market to be on the up-side the coming days.