Mon 5 Dec 2011, 13:25 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil futures have gained this morning, following steadier equities. At ICE and NYMEX first resistance lines have been breached triggering further buying orders. At the weekend the Iranreported, it had brought down an unmanned USspying aircraft. According to traders, the conflicts' coming to a head lately was the main reason for the price increase. Gains are limited, however, by speculations the European debt crisis might only be stemmed with measures which negatively affected economic growth.

During last week, ICE Brent rose about 3% developing a slight up trend. Resistances as well as supports have proved strong, thus marking oil prices's range in Londonand New York. After Thursday's profit taking oil futures had already risen Friday morning. Their rebound off the inact support created some leeway up, along with stronger equities and a retreating dollar. Positive USemployment data were interpreted bullish. Yet they only temporarily caused oil prices to rise. Particularly the dollar profited from the good data and was able to gain some ground until late in the evening. The strong dollar making oil futures more expensive for investors outside the USAtriggered some profit taking at ICE and NYMEX. Oil prices fell down to their first supports but those remained strong. At night, oil futures corrected slightly up and finally settled with some gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for December delivery settled at 951.25 dollars on Friday. This was 5.25 dollars above Thursday settlement. With some 35,400 contracts the traded volume was far below average.

The Stochastic oscillator at the ICE charts remains bearish this morning, whereas the indicator is interpreted slightly bullish for the WTI Crude.Technical analysts point out, that the selling signal from the stochastic at the ICE charts already developed Thursday afternoon. Since then, support lines have proved strong, however, hinting at a continuingly steady tendency. As to the WTI Crude, there has already developed a resistance at 101.75 dollars, which is likely to be tested in the course of the day. Should oil futures breach this mark, there will be more leeway up, analysts say. Technical selling orders are only expected, if oil prices fall below 100.65 dollars (WTI Crude) and below 109.15 dollars (Brent). The first support for the WTI is at 100.65 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 101.75 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 111.00 dollars, its first support is at 110.00 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures are edging higher in Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning continuing Friday evening's technical correction up. They are profiting from the euro having slightly advanced over the last weekend. The common currency has climbed over 1.34 dollar again. The traded volume is on average. Market participants now eye the opening of European markets, the meeting of Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy as well as the publication of some important US indicators today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 3-12)

380cst $632
180cst $668
MGO $978

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 3-12)

380cst $635
180cst $671
MGO $982

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing, gaining still with WTI +$0.47. Singapore paper is trading back up, gaining with +$0.20 for 180cst and +$0.25 for 380cst for Dec, and for Jan 180 cst +$0.45 and 380cst unchanged with MGO Dec contracts at +$0.65 and for Jan +$0.70. The cargo market is slowing as well with 180cst -$1.27, 380cst -$2.28 and MGO -$0.26.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were down more than -$1.00 during the Platts window last Friday tracking the crude movement. This month, incoming loadings so far are around 1.5 million mt with about 3.2-3.3 million mt total expected for the month. The delivered bunker premiums were around $14.75 above the cargo prices last Friday. Bunker fuel swaps gained in a range of $1.00-3.00/mt along the curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. Gains were slightly more pronounced at the back of the forward curve. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $669
180 cst $672
MGO $930

Fujairah (delivered indications 5-12)

380cst $695
180cst $715
MGO $1045

Avails issue is sustaining the market.

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The Northwest European bunker ended the week plied by bearish sentiment, despite stronger FOBRotterdam barges that had followed firmer day-on-day outright oil prices. Rotterdam and Antwerp continued to run low for prompt high sulfur fuel oil on ongoing tightness caused by VLCCs lading for Asian market at the end of November. Another two VLCCs were expected to get loaded for Singapore up to December 19. In the MOC 1% was traded at $ 657 with hs $ 618-624 levels traded.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 642
(1.0 %) :$ 675
180cst: $ 659
(1.0 %):$ 688
MGO 0.1%S: $975

MGO  

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