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Mechnical indicators: immediate term / bullish medium term

Oil futures have retreated during morning trade on fears of a possible default of the USA , ICE Gasoil breaching its first support. The weekend still brought no solution regarding the debt talks between Republicans and Democrats. Thus the world's largest economy is threatened by a default and a downgrade of its credit ranking on Aug 2. Market participants wait for the opening of US markets in the afternoon.

Friday morning, oil prices were steadier, following the slight bullish technical impetus. The Euro was able to hold Thursday's gains but retreated significantly in the course of the afternoon, losing up to 1 cent against the dollar. The steadier US currency triggered some profit taking regarding oil futures before oil prices edged higher once again during late trade. While ICE Brent and Gasoil did not reach their resistances, WTI crude climbed up to 100.19 dollars. Market participants do not regard this as sustained breaching of resistances, however, but suppose the rising prices during late evening were due to speculators' strategic buying. Some investors seem to have hoped for an agreement regarding the US ' debt crisis on the weekend, an analyst said this morning. With no important economic data scheduled on Friday, oil futures stayed within their technical range.

ICE Gasoil contract for August settled at 982.75 dollars on Friday. This was 0.50 dollars below Thursday's settlement. With some 43,300 contracts, the traded volume was below average.

The stochastic indicator looses its bullish impetus at the beginning of the week and, along with the RSI, is to be seen as neutral. Oil futures form a technical triangle, which is defined by medium term resistances and supports. Chart analysts therefore assess the situation as neutral, pointing out however that a signal might be given, should oil futures transgress this triangle. This signal would then show the further direction. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 98.50 dollars, its first resistance at 100.20 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 118.80 dollars, its first support is at 117.35 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Acces losing. Oil prices have retreated during electronic morning trade. Market participants who counted on a solution regarding the US debt crisis last weekend liquidated their long positions during early morning trade triggering a short dip. Trading interests at NYMEX have been over average. Investors look ahead to opening of the European markets.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22-7)

380 cst $658
180 cst $688
MDO $1014

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 22-7)

380 cst $661
180 cst $692
MDO $1018

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is losing some of its Friday gains with WTI +$0.38. Singapore paper is not yet reacting, gaining with +$3.05 for 180cst and +$3.85 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst +$3.75 and 380cst +$3.890 with MGO Aug contracts at -$0.20 and for Sep at -$0.21. The cargo market is tracking crude gaining with 180cst +$3.57, 380cst +$4.58 and MGO +$0.05.

The Singapore fuel oil markets rose by more than +$3.5/mt during the Friday’s Platts window. The market seems to be amply supplied and demand has also been softened by the recent high price. The delivered premiums slipped to $5.0/mt above cargo prices last Friday. Bunker swaps gained few dollars in the front of the curve. Rotterdam papers were supported by a tight sport market gaining a little more than Singapore papers as a result. Backend of the curve was considerably weaker resulting in a small loss for 2012 papers. Both markets are trading slightly down this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $681
180 cst $689
MDO $974

Fujairah (delivered indications 25-7)

380 cst $692
180 cst $722
MDO $1071

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 661
(1.0 %) :$ 711
180cst: $ 684
(1.0 %):$ 750
MGO 0.1%S: $ 984