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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish immediate term / neutral to bullish medium term

After consolidating in the morning, oil prices followed technical selling orders down after resistance lines had proved strong. A weaker dollar lent some support later in the day. After the opening of NYMEX session, oil prices dropped again on Greece worries only to rebound later in the session, with the exception of the WTI crude that remain weak following reports of refinery problems, spurring concerns about tight supplies. Exxon Mobil and Total SA each reported production losses due to unit shutdowns. Oil prices are seen trading in a narrow range in the morning, always bound to the movements of the dollar that keeps being weighed down by economic worries. More US indicators being released in the afternoon could change the picture. With the US Memorial Day on Monday the US driving season starts and gasoline demand should increase. Therefore the gasoline contract will remain supported.

Technical analysts forecast that prices will ease on profit taking in electronic morning trade as a technical reaction to Wednesday's massive gains. But the extent of a possible downward correction depends on the movement of the U.S. dollar. Should the greenback keep easing, oil prices would remain on their high level. The WTI chart shows a rather flat uptrend within which prices range at the upper limit of the channel. More price increases are only seen, should the WTI crude breach the 102.00 dollar resistance. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 100.00 dollars, the first resistance at 102.00 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 115.50 dollars, its first support is at 112.70 dollars.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 914,75 dollars Thursday nigh. This was 4,75 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. Volume with some 39.600 deals below average.

The Stochastic indicator on the ICE charts and the WTI crude is slightly bullish today, but set to enter overbought territory. When oil prices breached the technical triangle yesterday, technical buying orders were triggered, but the upward margin was used by Wednesday's rally so that there is not much upward momentum left today.

JP Morgan expects OPEC to raise oil quotas from 24,8 to around 27,0 to 27,5 mbpd. In April OPEC produced 25,82 mbpd.

• The euro zone business climate indicator fell to 0.99 in Mai after 1.28 in the previous month
• The overall index for euro zone business and consumer sentiment fell to 105.5 in May after 106.1 in April. Economists expected a reading of 105.7.

The U.S. currency declined versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts on speculation slowing growth will deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates until next year. Figures released yesterday showed US first quarter growth was less than expected and the latest employment figures were disappointing. The weaker-than-expected results and reports released today economists said will show U.S. consumer spending slowed in April and pending home sales declined, gave rise to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to lag other Central Banks with respect to interest rate increases. Even as the euro gains on the dollar, it continues to lose against other currencies on fears that the situation in Greece could deteriorate to the point that billions in debt could require restructuring. The single currency fell for a sixth day against the Swiss franc as European officials clashed over how to resolve Greece’s debt woes. It rose to 1.4252 dollars this morning in Europe from 1.4145 dollars in New York yesterday.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil prices rose in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning, the WTI crude climbing back above 100.00 dollars for a barrel, amid the strong delince of the US dollar that suffers from a negative economic outlook. The traded volume is below average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 26-5)

380 cst $625
180 cst $660
MDO $960

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 26-5)

380 cst $627
180 cst $662
MDO $963

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is trading sideways with WTI -$0.20. Singapore paper is slightly bullish still but losing momentum with +$3.15 for 180 cst and +$3.20 for 380 cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$3.20 and 380cst +$3.20 with MGO Jun contracts at +$0.70 and for Jul at +$0.71 The cargo market yet to react to the loss of momentum with 180cst +$15.02 380cst +$15.81 and MGO +$3.81.

The Asian fuel oil market strengthened for a second session on Wednesday as China's Brightoil intensified its buying spree. Fuel oil's cracks rose to a discount narrower than $8.00 a barrel to Dubai crude for the first time in nearly three weeks, despite slightly higher crude benchmarks, while its prompt time spread was steady at a week-high backwardation of around $4.00. The Singapore bunker differential, the price spread between ex-wharf marine fuel prices and fuel oil cargo values, was valued higher at a premium of $5.35, up $2.10, as sellers lifted offer prices amid higher bunker fuel prices at $632.00 a tonne. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $654
180 cst $669
MDO $964

Fujairah (delivered indications 27-5)

380cst: $652
180cst: $679
MGO: $1025

Rotterdam

Yesterday in the MOC hsfo was traded between 618-620 usd and lsfo between 640-646 usd.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $625
(1.0%): $647
180cst: $647
(1.0%): $673 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $955