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Technical indicators: neutral

Oil prices dropped on profit taking in morning trading as analysts had forecast. When support lines proved strong, the decline was temporarily stopped and oil recovered from its day's lows. During NYMEX session prices then slid after the IMF had published its Economic growth forecast. Oil prices are seen moving within a tight range in the morning, a bunch of economic data being released in the course of the day will determine the direction. The important monthly report of the International Energy Agency at 10:00 a.m. is the first in a series.

The International Energy Agency sees the oil market continue tightening in 2011 as some of the crude oil comes from countries facing political tensions.

- 2011 global oil demand growth seen at +1.4 mill b/d, unchanged vs previous month
- global oil output fell 0.7 percent in March on Libya
- OPEC's effective spare capacity is seen at 3.9 mill b/d
- OECD oil stocks at 59.2 days of forward cover in February
- oil demand growth will fall in Asia on high prices

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 1.050,50 dollars Monday night. This was 2,50 dollars below Friday's settlement. Volume with some 68.300 deals above average. The gasoil contract on the ICE for April delivery expires at 1:00 p.m. today. The new front month May is already much more actively traded, as market participants have switched their positions to the new contract. The thin volume of the April contract may lead to a certain volatility.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its forecast on global economic growth for 2011 to 4,4%, whereby growth in industrialized nations will be significantly below this level. The slow growth rate is due to high oil prices and the effects of the debt crisis in Europe and the USA. The average price for crude oil is seen at over 100.00 dollars in 2011.

German consumer prices rose 0.5% in March vs the previous month after having climbed 0.5% in February. The rate of price increases on year is unchanged at 2.1%.

The euro fell below 1.44 dollars this morning in East Asia, down 0.3 percent on the day and heading toward support at the April 6 high of 1.4350 dollars after the US government and the Congress finally agreed on budget. Yet analysts see no recovery for the dollar in coming months as the FED delays raising interest rates after the end of its 600 billion dollar asset-purchase programme in June. Support for the euro is seen at 1.4350 and 1.4290 dollars this morning, resistance lines at 1.4458 and 1.4570 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing. Oil futures eased in Asian trading and Globex electronic trading this morning, crude oil prices retreating from a 32-month high on profit taking as equity markets fell and the dollar rebounded. The traded volume is significantly above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-4)

380 cst $668
180 cst $687
MDO $1045

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 12-4)

380 cst $670
180 cst $6911
MDO $1047

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is losing heavily with WTI -$2.51 Singapore paper is following crude with -$6.50 for 180 cst and -$5.40 for 380 cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$6.30 and 380cst -$5.60 with MGO Apr contracts at -$2.18 and for May at -$ 2.19 The cargo market is yet to react to the markets drops although it is starting to lose momentum with 180cst +$3.90, 380cst +$0.91 and MGO +$1.90.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up more than $5.00 last week tracking the crude strength during the Platts window. The Singapore heavy residual inventories reported a build of +2.1 mbbl to 20.67 mbbl as incoming cargoes enter Singapore. Most of the products that arrived are not bunker grade specifications products yet as such market may experience some tightness sporadically. The delivered bunker premium was at around $6.0 above cargo prices last Friday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $684
180 cst $699.50
MDO $1061.50

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-4)

380cst: $686
180cst: $710
MGO: $1040

Rotterdam

Yesterday in the MOC lsfo was traded between 727 usd, hsfo between 655-658 usd.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $659
(1.0%): $734
180cst: $679
(1.0%): $754 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $1051