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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish immediate term / bullish medium term

Oil prices slipped below 98 dollars in New York this afternoon, as risk aversion heightened after Japan's Prime Minister said the risk of further radiation leaks has increased following a third explosion at a nuclear power plant. Earlier today, the IEA held its 2011 global oil product demand growth forecast at 1.4 million barrels per day. Taking into account the recent natural disaster in Japan, the agency said oil demand in Japan may climb by about 200,000 barrels per day if the country makes up the shortfall in nuclear power with crude-fired generation.

Oil prices started lower into Monday trading hours. Traders were expecting lower demand from Japan as refineries were shut down after natural desaster hit the country Friday. In afternoon prices began to climb lead by ICE gasoil and NYMEX heating oil which have broken through first resistance lines. There was some short-lived buyings going on in Japan, a trader says. After electricity supply from several nuclear power plants is missing, Japan is switching to oil generators to make up for the missing nuclear capacity. Also a weaker dollar and reports of Saudi-Arab soldiers and police forces from United Arab Emirates crossing the boarder to Bahrain was giving prices a boost till late trading.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 963.00 dollars Monday night. This was +4.250 dollars above Friday's settlement. Volume with some 109,300 deals well above average.

The Stochastic for Brent starts giving a buying signal to the markets today. The Stochastic of WTI is still slightly bearish and restrains NYMEX C.Oil in his upward movement. Nevertheless, the trend canals remain intact. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 103.90 dollars, the first resistance at 105.50 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 117.00 dollars, the first support is at 112.15 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing. Oil prices dropped sharply as the dollar gained back Monday losses. Analysts say the trading interest is on a high level and market participants are closely watching the situation in Bahrain, Libya and the nuclear catastrophy in Japan which leads to a risk aversion at this point in time.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 14-3)

380 cst $618
180 cst $638
MDO $974

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 14-3)

380 cst $620
180 cst $641
MDO $977

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is turning again with WTI +$0.81 Singapore paper is mixed with +$2.90 for 180 cst and -$0.50 for 380 cst for March, and for Apr 180 cst +$2.95 and 380cst -$0.55 with MGO March contracts at +$0.49 and for Apr at +$ 0.49 The cargo market is mirroring crude with 180cst +$2.06, 380cst +$0.26 and MGO +$0.06.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were trading flat to +$2.00/mt during the Platts window yesterday. The Asian Fuel Oil crack strengthened considerably due to expectation of demand for product in Japan. The bunker delivered premiums ranged from $6.00 to $9.50 above cargo price yesterday. This morning both markets are trading significantly lower.

380 cst $639
180 cst $651
MDO $970

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

Fujairah (delivered indications 15-3)

380cst: $642
180cst: $663
MGO: $990

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $601
(1.0%): $684
180cst: $621
(1.0%): $708 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $952