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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish immediate term / bullish medium term

Oil prices edge lower on rising US crude stock and disappointing Chinese export figures, outweighing the bullishness of the unrest in Libya and the other Middle East/ North African regions for now.

Yesterday Brent rose 0.3 percent to surpass 116 US dollars on Wednesday after forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi bombed oil industry infrastructure, inflicting what could be longer-term damage on the country's exporting capacity. The spread between WTI and Brent rose again to almost 12 dollars.

OPEC oil producers are consulting about a supply boost but many in the group remain skeptical, saying high prices are due to fears of shortage and world supply is comfortable despite the loss of Libyan crude. "We are in consultations about a potential output increase, but have not yet decided," Kuwait's Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah Al-Sabah told reporters Today.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 964.50 dollars Wednesday night. This was +14.75 dollars above Tuesday's settlement. Volume with some 68,500 deals above average.

The Stochastic for Brent starts giving a buying signal to the markets today. The Stochastic of WTI is still slightly bearish and restrains NYMEX C.Oil in his upward movement. Nevertheless, the trend canals remain intact. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 103.90 dollars, the first resistance at 105.50 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 117.00 dollars, the first support is at 112.15 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil prices are continuing their rise this morning. Oil advanced as fighting in Libya worsened and OPEC still sees no need for an emergency meeting to consider raising output. Fears that Libya's uprising could spread further in the Middle East also dented market sentiment. In currencies, the dollar rose against the Yen and the Euro. The traded volume is at average.

APIs: crude oil +3.820; distillates -1.473; gasoline -3.743 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +1.5%

DOEs: crude oil +2.516; distillates -3.977; gasoline -5.494 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery unitization +1.1%

Forecasts: crude oil +0.400; distillates -1.800; gasoline -1.500 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.1%

Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-3)

380 cst $628
180 cst $648
MDO $997

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 9-3)

380 cst $630
180 cst $651
MDO $999

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is motionless, losing only marginally with WTI -$0.05 Singapore paper bullish still, gaining with +$16.50 for 180 cst and +$16.70 for 380 cst for March, and for Apr 180 cst +$16.50 and 380cst +$16.95 with MGO March contracts at +$2.35 and for Apr at +$2.40 The cargo market is slowing somewhat with 180cst -$2.20, 380cst -$2.23 and MGO -$1.25.

The Singapore fuel oil swaps reversed gains from the previous session on Thursday, with its prompt crack falling further below a discount of $11.00/bbl on higher crude and as heavy cargo arrivals continued to dampen sentiment. Market sentiment has been depressed by heavy Western inflows expected from the second half of this month. Paper traded down during the window, closing at -$2.15. Delivered bunkers reflected ample supply, trading at Mops + $2.00. This morning markets are trading up, tracking the movements in crude.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $647

180 cst $660

MDO $980

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-3)

380cst: $644
180cst: $679
MGO: $998

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $608
(1.0%): $666
180cst: $623
(1.0%): $686 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $966