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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

Nymex trading is closed for Christmas holidays. Crude contracts are surging on Chinese energy demand forecasts, positive US consumer data and continuing cold weather forecasts in US and NEW. Brent crude trading at its highest level since end 2008.

U.S.

Survey of US petroleum inventories due out today is as follows:

APIs: crude oil -5.796; distillates +0.016; gasoline -2.905 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.7%

DOEs: crude oil -5.333; distillates -0.589; gasoline +2.400 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.3%

Forecasts: crude oil -1.1; distillates -0.8; gasoline +0.5 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.2%

Survey of US natural gas storage volumes according to EIA to be released later today for the week till Dec 17th: -181.00 billion cubic feet vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23/12)

380 cst $499
180 cst $519
MDO $773

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 23/12)

380 cst $502
180 cst $522
MDO $786

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining bullish momentum with WTI +$0.92. Singapore paper is slowly reacting with Jan +$0.95 for 180 cst and +$1.25 for 380 cst, and for Feb 180 cst +$1.10 and 380cst +$1.30 with MGO Jan contracts at +$0.80 and for Jan at +$0.81. The cargo market is looking for direction with 180cst -$1.50, 380cst -$1.82 and MGO +$0.16.

The Singapore fuel oil market rose only marginally range $0.50 to $1.50 during the Platts window Yesterday. The sentiment remains weak as fundamentals look balanced and general trades are expected to slow during the festive season. The delivered bunker premiums were $1.00 to $2.00 above cargo prices Yesterday. This morning markets are are trading down

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $508
180 cst $519
MDO $789

Fujairah (delivered indications 24/12)

380cst: $510
180cst: $542
MGO: $809

Rotterdam (delivered indications)

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) In the MOC 54KT was traded between 487.00-489.00 with Petroned and Totsa as the main sellers to Mercuria as the main buyer.

The NWE HSFO markets are well supplied. Although there have been three VLCC’s reported for December loading and one for January, the softening Singapore market has put the arbitrage economics in the red. The HSFO Med markets are picking up, with domestic demand discouraging arbitrage fixtures. For the LSFO there are some cargoes seen moved from NWE to the Med, although the arbitrage is not considered to be open yet. The five weeks maintenance shut down of the Fos Sur Mer ExxonMobil refinery, scheduled mid Jan may tip the balance. The NWE LSFO markets are also still well supplied, with stored product entering the market and product arriving out of the US. The continuing cold weather however is lending some support.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $495
(1.5%): $510
180cst: $508
(1.5%): $535 (very low avails)
DMB: N/A
DMA: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $785