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Technical indicators: bullish

Oil prices rose this morning on a sliding dollar, cold weather and technical buying orders. Resistance lines were breached across the whole complex, with the strong 89.00 dollars resistance now also breached.

ICE gasoil January is expected to open 5.25 to 6.75 dollars up at about 767.00 dollars/ton after settling at 761.00 dollars (official settlement price) Friday night. This was 5.50 dollars below Thursday's settlement. Volume with some 73,600 deals significantly above average.

Opec: On their latest meeting last weekend in Ecuador, the organization kept their production output quotas unchanged. This has not changed since January 2009, and is officially 24.84 million b/pd.

ICE gasoil contract for December delivery expired at 757.75 dollars (unchanged vs the previous settlement) Friday.

Oil prices fell through several support lines Friday, NYMEX crude breached the lower limit of the uptrend channel at 88.30 dollars. Today, a short-term downtrend has formed. Yet, the RSI indicator is giving a buying signal this morning and the Stochastic left the overbought territory. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 87.10 dollars, the first resistance at 88.50 dollars (the upper limit of the downtrend channel).

U.S.

Nymex Access: Oil prices are rising in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning on OPEC decision and as China held off raising interest rates. No news in the markets. The traded volume is above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 10/12)

380 cst $487
180 cst $504
MDO $774

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 10/12)

380 cst $490
180 cst $507
MDO $777

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is losing slightly with WTI -$0.30. Singapore paper is reacting to crude with Dec -$0.20 for 180 cst and -$0.20 for 380 cst, and for Jan 180 cst -$0.05 and 380cst +$0.50 with MGO Dec contracts at -$0.21 and for Jan at -$0.21. The cargo market is mixed with 180cst +$0.15, 380cst +$1.36 and MGO - $0.25.

The Singapore fuel oil market has inched up ranging $0.1-1.50/mt during the Platts window last Friday. The 180cst premiums came off while the 380cst cargo premiums have stayed at about $1.0/mt, which could indicate a more robust demand requirement for bunker usage. The delivered bunker premiums were $1.5-3.0/mt range above cargo prices last Friday. Bunker fuel swaps closed the week with another gain of approx. $3.75/mt along the curve. Prices remained a little stronger at the back of the forward curve with front month papers losing few cents more. Both markets are trading higher today.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $501
180 cst $510
MDO $775

Fujairah (delivered indications 13/12)

380cst: $496
180cst: $533
MGO: $790

Rotterdam (delivered indications)

Last Friday

(Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) In the MOC 66KT was traded between 464.25-467.50 with Totsa and Koch as the main sellers to Petroned as the main buyer.

The NWE HSFO markets are well supplied, with the Russian influx underpinning the markets, outweighing the seven VLCC's reportedly fixed. The HSFO Med markets are oversupplied and sluggish, with cargoes to NWE starting to become more attractive. For the LSFO there are some cargoes seen moved from NWE to the Med, although the arbitrage is not considered to be open yet. The NWE LSFO markets are also still well supplied, with stored product entering the market and product arriving out of the US. The continuing cold weather however is lending some support.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $480
(1.5%): $495
180cst: $494
(1.5%): $510 (very low avails)
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $771