---

Technical indicators: bullish immediate term / neutral medium term

Oil prices eased during electronic trading due to the rising dollar, to rise slightly during electronic trading this afternoon, due to stronger equities. Conditioned by the american holiday and missing economic data analysts expect a quiet trade for today. Oil prices continue their rise during electronic trading due to weaker dollar. Resistance lines were breached across the whole complex

Oil prices shed earlier gains in after-hour trading as the dollar rose vs the euro.

OPEC trimmed its demand forecast for its members’ crude for this year as production from outside the group grew the most since 2002. OPEC, responsible for about 40 percent of global supplies, predicted in a monthly report today that the world will need 28.6 million barrels of oil a day from its 12 members this year. That’s about 100,000 barrels a day less than last month’s revised figure. The group is gathering in Vienna on Oct 14 for their next meeting.

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open 1.50 to 2.00 dollars higher at about 715.25 dollars/ton after settling at 713.25 dollars (official settlement price) Tuesday night. This was 6.75 dollars below Monday's settlement. Volume with some 137,700 deals above average.

Oil prices have installed themselves within the existing uptrend. The Stochastic indicator gives neutral signals, while the RSI is set to leave the overbought territory. Should the RSI breach the 70% line, a selling signal will be triggered. First WTI crude support line seen at 81.50 dollars today, first resistance line at 83.00 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access : Oil futures are rising in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, due to a weaker dollar and after yesterday's FED meeting. No news in the markets. The traded volume is on average.

Survey of US petroleum inventories API data will be released later today, DOE data Thursday afternoon (both one day delayed) because of Monday's US holiday. crude oil +1.2; distillates -1.3; gasoline -1.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization: +0.1%

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-10)

380cst: $473
180cst: $493
MGO: $738

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 12-10)

380cst: $475
180cst: $496
MGO: $742

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is bouncing back up with WTI +$1.55. Singapore paper is mirroring crude with 180cst +$5.50 and 380cst +$5.55 for Oct, and Nov 180 cst +$5.70 and 380cst +$5.60 with MGO Oct contracts +$1.10 and for Nov at +$1.21. The cargo market is still losing with 180cst -$5.69, 380cst -$5.27 and MGO -$1.00.

The Singapore fuel oil market erased previous gains, losing more than $5 tracking crude weakness during the Platts window. There was not much change to the fundamentals with ample supply and soft demand. The delivered bunker premiums were app. $1.0 above cargo prices yesterday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $472
180cst: $480
MGO: $710

Fujairah (delivered indications 13/10)

380cst: $475
180cst: $495
MGO: $740

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 72KT was traded in the MOC between 453.00-454.00 with Gunvor and Koch as the main sellers to Litasco as the main buyer.

Bullish crude movements despite the build in US stocks added to the relatively weak avails are keeping the HSFO markets firm. The East bound arbitrage has not yet reached workable levels. The Med is much stronger than the NWE market, but also the Med arbitrage is still uneconomical due to the barge rates. Product length in the LSFO markets with the inbound US cargoes is weighing things down thereby exacerbating the cargo / barge differential. However the current storage situation may urge suppliers to make ullage.

380cst: $463
(1.0%): $481
180cst: $478
(1.0%): $498
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $725