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Technical indicators: neutral ahead of DOEs

Due to the lack of any important economic indicators today, market participants will be very cautious ahead of the release of DOE petroleum data, so there is little volatility expected for today. Should the Department of Energy confirm the high builds in stocks that API data showed last night, prices will ease further.

Oil prices expectably fell last night after the Fed expressed greater concern about sluggish U.S. growth and low levels of inflation in a statement that many took as opening the door wider to pumping new dollars into the economy. The declaration sent the greenback to a seven-week low against the euro and weighed on equity markets and oil prices. Oil prices are still in a short-term downtrend after oil prices failed to breach resistance lines Tuesday. The medium-term uptrend has flattened. The RSI remains in neutral territory and the Stochastic indicator signals a consolidation. First WTI crude support line seen at 74.60 dollars today, first resistance line at 76.00 dollars These are the lower and upper limit of the existing downtrend. Today, technical analysts see fundamentals overruling technical aspects (DOE data).

Oil prices are still in a short-term downtrend after oil prices failed to breach resistance lines Tuesday. The medium-term uptrend has flattened. The RSI remains in neutral territory and the Stochastic indicator signals a consolidation. First WTI crude support line seen at 74.60 dollars today, first resistance line at 76.00 dollars These are the lower and upper limit of the existing downtrend. Today, technical analysts see fundamentals overruling technical aspects (DOE data).

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open 2,50 to 4,00 dollars lower at about 677,00 dollars/ton after settling at 680,25 dollars (official settlement price) Tuesday night. This was 2,00 dollars above Monday's settlement. Volume with some 56.300 deals above average.

USA: Housing starts surged a better-than-expected 10.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000. Economists expected overall housing starts to decrease by 0.2% to 545,000 during August, largely because buyers have remained concerned with a weak job market and uncertain economic prospects. Building permits increased 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing: Oil prices edged higher in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, WTI crude sliding past 75.00 dollars a barrel on a weaker dollar and in a technical reaction to Tuesday's hefty losses. No news in the markets. The traded volume is on average.

DOE report: crude oil +2.231; distillates +2.509, gasoline +2.422 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery ulitilisation fell 0.2% to 85.4% and there was a draw at Cushing -0.2 leaving 34.8 million barrels.

Survey of US petroleum inventories due out today is as follows: crude oil +2.00; distillates -1.40, gasoline +0.1 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization expected to remain unchanged.

The figures are extremely bearish, as the temporary shut-down of Candian Enbridge Pipeline should have had an impact on crude stocks. The considerable build in crude oil and products is prove for a hefty slowdown in demand. But the data had no immediate impact on prices as traders are now eyeing the more price-relevant data from the Department of Energy to be released this afternoon.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22-9)

380cst: $433
180cst: $453
MGO: $715

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 22-9)

380cst: $436
180cst: $456
MGO: $718

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is starting to sell off post bearish stock reports with WTI -$0.94. Singapore paper is following cautiously with 180cst -$3.45 and 380cst -$3.55 for Oct, and Nov 180 cst -$3.40 and 380cst -$3.55 with MGO Oct contracts -$0.98 and for Nov at -$0.98. The cargo market is reacting to yesterdays technical buying session with 180cst +$3.44, 380cst +$3.36 and MGO +$1.29.

Singapore fuel oil price lost more than $3.0 yesterday during the Platts window yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums were app. $0.5 above the cargo yesterday as bunker demand remains relatively weak. There are heavy supplies incoming to Singapore in October. Several Asian countries like China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea are closed for holidays. This morning, fuel is trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $443
180cst: $450
MGO: $663

Fujairah (delivered indications 20/9)

380cst: $442
180cst: $465
MGO: $720

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 58KT was traded in the MOC between 427.50-429.50 with Gunvor as the main seller to Gunvor and Chemoil notable as the main buyers.

With the Singapore market well supplied the arbitrage is now closed. However, NWE demand is weakening and therefore despite the reported 5 VLCC fixtures prices are steady. Litasco, RWE, Vitol and BP all fixed VLCCs and Total a Suezmax all for the Singapore arb. Once these are loaded prices are expected to soften more. Gunvor also has a vessel loading in Tallinn heading direct. The US influx has all but dried up, and local suppliers are reluctant to meet short demand, to fully profit from the contango. Shell has a cargo inbound from the US 27-29th September.

380cst: $435
(1.0%): $459
180cst: $450
(1.0%): $470
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $685