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Trends

Rotterdam (ARA) fuel oil - US$9 higher

Singapore fuel oil - US$7 higher

US Gulf - US$1 higher


A bit of hope for US housing market

After a very disappointing 32% fall in May, new home sales recovered to increase 23% during June. US equity markets and commodities responded positively as the figures were well received by investors. A stabilizing housing market is viewed as an essential component of long-term recovery.

Iran sanctions’ consequences

According to Reuters, Iran has only received three cargoes of gasoline in the month of July after EU and the US imposed tougher sanctions in June. On a side note, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to cut oil supply to the US if there is a Colombian attack due to escalating tensions between the two countries.

BP CEO Hayward to step down

BP announced that the company's residing CEO, Tony Hayward, will be replaced by Bob Dudley as of October 1st, 2010. Dudley is currently in charge of Macondo oil spill clean-up operations which caused BP shares to plunge over 40% and cost the company billions of dollars since April.

Today's important numbers include Eurozone money supply, German consumer sentiment and US ICSC chain store sales / Redbook numbers / Case-Shiller house price index / consumer confidence and Richmond FED activity figures.

Recommendation

A narrow trading range between $75 - $78/barrel has been established in the last two weeks. Positive US data and a confirmation of oil inventory drawdowns might be the trigger to push prices above the 200-day moving average of $78.7/barrel this week. We recommend to take a wait-see approach until prices close above this level.

Consensus: US oil data

Crude: -1,800,000 barrels
Distillates: 1,600,000 barrels
Gasoline: 600,000 barrels
Refinery utilization: -0.6%