Australia’s Orica has reached a final investment decision (FID) for the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub (HVHH), a project that will partially convert its existing natural gas-based ammonia production to renewable ammonia, according to a monthly update published by the Green Energy and Nitrogen Alliance (GENA).

The decision, announced on 1 July, covers a facility on Kooragang Island, Australia, where the project will produce 4.7 kilotonnes per year of renewable hydrogen to replace a portion of the natural gas-based hydrogen currently used at Orica’s existing ammonia plant. According to GENA, this volume of hydrogen will be sufficient to produce approximately 26.6 kilotonnes per year of ammonia — around 7% of the facility’s conventional ammonia capacity. Shortly after reaching FID, Orica awarded the engineering and procurement contract and ordered 50 MW of proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers.

Despite this development, GENA noted that the decision has only a limited effect on the overall structure of the project pipeline by status, with approximately 5% of renewable ammonia projects having reached FID or operational status, and a further 12% in the engineering stage.

US cancellation weighs on pipeline

The update was accompanied by a contraction in the global low-carbon ammonia project pipeline, driven primarily by the cancellation of Air Products’ Louisiana Clean Energy Complex (LCEC) — a 2.8 megatonnes per year greenfield project in Louisiana, United States. The pipeline shrank by 2.6 megatonnes, or million metric tonnes (MMT) month-on-month after Yara decided not to proceed with acquiring the ammonia portion of the project. In a statement cited by GENA, Yara said: “The project’s expected financial returns do not meet Yara’s investment criteria.”

As of July 2026, GENA’s Project Navigator Ammonia tracks 332 projects and operational facilities, representing a total capacity of 85 MMT by 2030 and 140 MMT by 2034. The pipeline comprises 297 renewable ammonia projects and 35 low-carbon ammonia projects, with total capacity of 108 MMT and 32 MMT by 2034, respectively.

Three new projects were added to the tracker over the past month — two renewable ammonia projects and one low-carbon ammonia project — while four frozen projects were excluded, including three renewable and one low-carbon project.

Capacity outlook tempered

Despite the scale of the tracked pipeline, GENA’s estimates point to a considerably smaller volume of capacity actually coming online. The organisation estimates that renewable ammonia capacity is likely to reach 5–8 MMT by 2030, while low-carbon ammonia capacity could grow to 6–8 MMT over the same period — a fraction of the pipeline totals currently logged.

The global renewable ammonia project pipeline stands at 63 MMT by 2030 and 108 MMT by 2034, while the global low-carbon ammonia pipeline totals 22 MMT by 2030 and 32 MMT by 2034, according to GENA’s data.

The share of post-FID low-carbon ammonia projects has increased to 19%, though GENA attributed this in part to the contraction of the overall project pipeline rather than an acceleration in project development.