Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $63.28 per barrel - down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close; and U.S. WTI crude futures were at $53.38 per barrel at 01:41 GMT - 25 cents, or 0.5 percent below their last settlement. I think this is the first time, or at least the only time we can remember, that we have seen the crack beginning with a -3 handle. Currently, it's at -3.95, demonstrating the real supply pressures for oil products and the advantages that the refining market is now reaping from cheaper crude. Even though prices are dropping, the effect on fuel oil has nowhere been as much as it has been mitigated by this crack movement. We have seen serious shortages in Singapore of products that has driven up the EW to above a $40 difference to Rotterdam prices, and the demand for eastbound freight to cater for this demand has pushed up freight rates as well. Crude really has taken a battering recently. I'm thinking of a scene like in Rocky I, where in the big fight, Rocky is sitting in the corner of the ring, huge bruises, bloody nose, eyes not quite sure where they are pointing. This morning the news outlets are reporting that Mr Trump has said to the Saudis: "Thank you for cheap crude." How does that work? It's a market; the price is the price. Oh wait, sorry, for a second I thought we were in a normal commodity market where the price is determined at what is fair value controlled by all the market factors, rather than a tight-fisted cartel and a impulsive man with an addiction to twitter. My mistake. I hope our American readers have a great Thanksgiving, and for everyone else, let's hope that market isn't too quiet without them.

Fuel Oil Market (Nov 21)

The front crack opened at -4.30, weakening to -4.70, before strengthening to -9.80. The Cal 19 was valued at -10.70.

The front-month 380 cSt barge fuel oil crack on Wednesday widened its discount to Brent crude away from a near 1-1/2 year high in the previous session as crude oil prices clawed back some losses.

The December 380 cSt barge fuel oil crack to Brent crude was trading at about minus $4.70 a barrel on Wednesday, compared with a discount of $4.30 a barrel in the previous session, broker sources said.

On Tuesday, the front-month crack discount was at its narrowest discount to Brent crude since June 2017. Oil bounced by more than 1 percent on Wednesday to claw back some of the previous day's 6-percent plunge, lifted by a report of an unexpected decline in U.S. commercial crude inventories and record Indian crude imports.

Economic Events:

* U.S. Thanksgiving

* China may release detailed commodity trade data, including country-wise breakdown of imports and exports

* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec18 - 415.75 / 417.75

Jan19 - 404.25 / 406.25

Feb19 - 395.25 / 397.25

Mar19 - 388.75 / 390.75

Apr19 - 383.00 / 385.00

May19 - 377.00 / 379.00

Q1-19 - 396.00 / 398.00

Q2-19 - 377.25 / 379.25

Q3-19 - 357.25 / 359.75

Q4-19 - 327.75 / 330.25

CAL19 - 363.50 / 366.50

CAL20 - 303.50 / 309.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec18 - 420.25 / 422.25

Jan19 - 409.00 / 411.00

Feb19 - 401.25 / 403.25

Mar19 - 395.75 / 397.75

Apr19 - 391.50 / 393.50

May19 - 386.00 / 388.00

Q1-19 - 402.00 / 404.00

Q2-19 - 386.25 / 388.25

Q3-19 - 368.75 / 371.25

Q4-19 - 344.25 / 346.75

CAL19 - 374.50 / 377.50

CAL20 - 324.50 / 330.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Dec18 - 375.00 / 377.00

Jan19 - 367.75 / 369.75

Feb19 - 362.75 / 364.75

Mar19 - 357.75 / 359.75

Apr19 - 353.00 / 355.00

May19 - 348.50 / 350.50

Q1-19 - 362.75 / 364.75

Q2-19 - 348.25 / 350.25

Q3-19 - 328.75 / 331.25

Q4-19 - 297.00 / 299.50

CAL19 - 334.25 / 337.25

CAL20 - 280.75 / 286.75

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Dec18 - 585.95 / 587.95

Jan19 - 579.31 / 581.31

Feb19 - 578.43 / 580.43

Mar19 - 578.25 / 580.25

Apr19 - 578.32 / 580.32

May19 - 580.32 / 582.32

Q1-19 - 578.66 / 580.66

Q2-19 - 580.20 / 582.20

Q3-19 - 587.71 / 590.21

Q4-19 - 593.81 / 596.81

CAL19 - 584.35 / 588.35

CAL20 - 597.86 / 603.86

Sing GO 10ppm

Dec18 - 77.95 / 78.15

Jan19 - 78.15 / 78.35

Feb19 - 78.35 / 78.55

Mar19 - 78.45 / 78.65

Apr19 - 78.53 / 78.73

May19 - 78.56 / 78.76

Q1-19 - 78.22 / 78.62

Q2-19 - 78.29 / 78.69

Q3-19 - 78.99 / 79.29

Q4-19 - 79.66 / 80.06

CAL19 - 78.68 / 79.28

CAL20 - 79.99 / 80.59