Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $71.85 per barrel at 01:15 GMT, down 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures were at $61.76 per barrel, down 45 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last settlement. The U.S. midterms were predictably predictable: the Democrats taking the House and the Republicans cementing their control over the Senate. I don't think this will have too much of a change for the U.S. apart from increased scrutiny of the President, and maybe a shift towards more intervention and erratic behaviour in foreign affairs - Middle East he's looking at you - which could impact on the oil markets. It will be interesting to see if anything comes out of the informal meeting of OPEC on the 11th of this month to combat the exemptions from Iranian sanctions that has caused prices to drop $10. Output from the world’s top-3 producers Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia, broke through 33 million bpd for the first time in October, meaning these three countries alone now meet more than a third of the almost 100 million bpd of global consumption. The ever-reliable API (add VLCC load of salt with that remark) reported a 7.8 million-barrel increase in the previous week, continuing the recent trend of increases in stocks in the U.S. with increasing production and transportation bottlenecks continuing to hamper the industry. Eyes on the market come 2.30pm for the EIA data where any excuse for a recovery with less bearish data will definitely be taken then.

Fuel Oil Market (Nov 6)

The front crack opened at -6.15, trading around that level most of the day, closing -6.20. The Cal 19 was valued at - 12.25.

Asia's 380 cSt fuel oil crack hit a 15-month high on Monday as the market grappled with the persisting crunch from reduced Venezuelan and Iranian exports while demand is strong.

The crack was at a discount of about $5.63 a barrel, its narrowest discount since July 2017. Supplies across key regions were down, with data from Fujairah, Singapore and Europe showing reduced fuel oil inventories.

Singapore's fuel oil stocks are down 38.5 percent from a year ago while Fujairah's levels were down 25.1 percent. Fuel oil stocks held in the ARA refining and storage hub were also down 29.2 percent year on year.

Economic Events: (Times are UK)

* EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report, 3:30pm; TopLive blog starts 3:20pm

* India on Diwali/Deepavali holiday

* EARNINGS: Marathon Oil Corp., Energy Transfer LP, JXTG Holdings

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec18 - 460.00 / 462.00

Jan19 - 449.50 / 451.50

Feb19 - 441.50 / 443.50

Mar19 - 435.25 / 437.25

Apr19 - 429.50 / 431.50

May19 - 423.50 / 425.50

Q1-19 - 442.25 / 444.25

Q2-19 - 424.00 / 426.00

Q3-19 - 402.50 / 405.00

Q4-19 - 369.50 / 372.00

CAL19 - 409.00 / 412.00

CAL20 - 340.50 / 346.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec18 - 466.00 / 468.00

Jan19 - 457.25 / 459.25

Feb19 - 450.00 / 452.00

Mar19 - 444.50 / 446.50

Apr19 - 439.25 / 441.25

May19 - 433.75 / 435.75

Q1-19 - 450.50 / 452.50

Q2-19 - 434.00 / 436.00

Q3-19 - 414.75 / 417.25

Q4-19 - 388.00 / 390.50

CAL19 - 420.75 / 423.75

CAL20 - 362.00 / 368.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Dec18 - 420.75 / 422.75

Jan19 - 414.00 / 416.00

Feb19 - 408.75 / 410.75

Mar19 - 403.75 / 405.75

Apr19 - 399.25 / 401.25

May19 - 394.25 / 396.25

Q1-19 - 408.75 / 410.75

Q2-19 - 394.00 / 396.00

Q3-19 - 373.00 / 375.50

Q4-19 - 338.00 / 340.50

CAL19 - 377.75 / 380.75

CAL20 - 318.25 / 324.25

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Dec18 - 651.17 / 653.17

Jan19 - 651.54 / 653.54

Feb19 - 649.93 / 651.93

Mar19 - 647.97 / 649.97

Apr19 - 646.93 / 648.93

May19 - 647.26 / 649.26

Q1-19 - 649.81 / 651.81

Q2-19 - 647.55 / 649.55

Q3-19 - 650.91 / 653.41

Q4-19 - 650.37 / 653.37

CAL19 - 648.85 / 652.85

CAL20 - 639.31 / 645.31

Sing GO 10ppm

Dec18 - 88.22 / 88.42

Jan19 - 88.09 / 88.29

Feb19 - 87.95 / 88.15

Mar19 - 87.91 / 88.11

Apr19 - 87.91 / 88.11

May19 - 87.93 / 88.13

Q1-19 - 87.89 / 88.29

Q2-19 - 87.82 / 88.22

Q3-19 - 88.24 / 88.54

Q4-19 - 88.48 / 88.88

CAL19 - 87.99 / 88.59

CAL20 - 87.44 / 88.44