Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

---

Commentary

Front-month Brent crude futures were at $72.56 per barrel at 01:09 GMT on Friday, down 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures were down 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $63.43 a barrel. Well, that was a roller coaster of a week. I don't think we have ever seen fuel movements like it, with crude falling and spreads doing the quick step all over the place. I do not envy any traders. Fundamentals- wise, Saudi Arabia is pumping 10.65 million bpd in October and combined output from the top-three oil producers is at a record 33.41 million bpd - meaning that Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia meet more than a third of the world's almost 100 million bpd of consumption. It is clear that this sentiment has weighed more on the minds of the market than the impending sanctions. Or maybe that's because the news has been banging on about the sanctions for so long that they actually have got bored of hearing it. 'If you say something enough, it becomes true' has been replaced with: 'if you say something enough you become totally desensitized to its effects'. Keep an eye out for news of waivers for the many Asian customers of Iran. If the U.S. doesn't grant any, you could see a bit of blind panic as they scramble to replace the shortfall - and the futures market will definitely be the first to react. Good weekend.

Fuel Oil Market (Nov 1)

The front crack opened at -7.00, strengthening to -5.70, before weakening to -6.20. The Cal 19 was valued at -12.00. Asia's prompt month-time spread soared to fresh highs on Thursday on continued signs of supply shortages in the Singapore trading and storage hub. The 380 cSt Nov/Dec time spread was trading at about $11.50 a tonne on Thursday, up from about $10 a tonne in the previous session, broker sources said. Cash premiums for 380 cSt fuel oil cargoes also soared into double-digit territory at $10.44 a tonne above Singapore quotes, their highest since June 2015, despite an absence of deals in the physical trading window. Onshore fuel oil inventories in Singapore fell 2.902 million barrels (about 433,000 tonnes) to 15.456 million barrels or 2.307 million tonnes.

Economic Events: (Times are UK)

* 5pm: Baker Hughes rig count

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec18 - 458.75 / 460.75

Jan19 - 449.25 / 451.25

Feb19 - 441.50 / 443.50

Mar19 - 435.75 / 437.75

Apr19 - 430.25 / 432.25

May19 - 424.75 / 426.75

Q1-19 - 442.25 / 444.25

Q2-19 - 424.75 / 426.75

Q3-19 - 403.00 / 405.50

Q4-19 - 369.75 / 372.25

CAL19 - 409.25 / 412.25

CAL20 - 341.25 / 347.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec18 - 465.25 / 467.25

Jan19 - 457.50 / 459.50

Feb19 - 450.25 / 452.25

Mar19 - 445.00 / 447.00

Apr19 - 440.25 / 442.25

May19 - 435.00 / 437.00

Q1-19 - 451.00 / 453.00

Q2-19 - 435.00 / 437.00

Q3-19 - 415.75 / 418.25

Q4-19 - 388.75 / 391.25

CAL19 - 422.00 / 425.00

CAL20 - 363.00 / 369.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Dec18 - 422.50 / 424.50

Jan19 - 415.75 / 417.75

Feb19 - 410.25 / 412.25

Mar19 - 405.25 / 407.25

Apr19 - 400.75 / 402.75

May19 - 395.75 / 397.75

Q1-19 - 410.25 / 412.25

Q2-19 - 396.00 / 398.00

Q3-19 - 374.75 / 377.25

Q4-19 - 339.75 / 342.25

CAL19 - 381.25 / 384.25

CAL20 - 315.75 / 321.75