Tue 30 Oct 2018, 09:48 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.


Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)
Commentary

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $77.22 a barrel at 06:25 GMT, down 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close, U.S. WTI crude futures were firmer, at $67.11 a barrel, up 17 cents from their last settlement. A question that is asked a lot of periphery watchers of the oil markets is "What happens next?" Well, ladies and gents, if I had the answer, I sure wouldn't be writing them in a report, I'd be betting my house, my car, my dog, my in-laws all on the outcome and then I'd be able to say 'sayonara' to the early morning London commute. This first question is quickly followed by the second most popular question: "Why is the market going up/down?". The truth is that by the time you have worked out the reasons behind a market movement, it's already too late to do anything about it. For many drivers of day-to-day events, it's not the obvious well-researched fundamentals, but the workings of the financials, who see any neutral time or uncertainty of direction to take profit and wait for the next entry point. None of the fundamental points have changed that much, there's still U.S. sanctions coming into effect next month, still worries about global economy growth, and supply increases in the U.S. and potential for OPEC to turn on the taps. Yet we have had a significant drop over the past two weeks, based on what? Based on the P/L of the funds. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Oct 29)

The front crack opened at -5.95, strengthening to -5.85, before weakening to -6.20. The Cal 19 was valued at -12.75.

Asia's fuel oil market resumed its steady ascent on Monday, with fuel oil cash premiums, front-month time spreads and refining margins climbing to fresh highs, as concerns over near-term supply continued to weigh.

The front-month Singapore 180-centistoke (cSt) fuel oil crack advanced for a fourth straight session and settled at a record high of $1.61 a barrel above Dubai crude oil, Refinitiv data showed.

The 380 cSt fuel oil November/December time spread climbed to $9 a tonne, its highest since end-July and up from $8.50 on Friday, Refinitiv data showed.

Cash premiums for 380 cSt fuel oil cargoes were also bid up to $8.51 a tonne to Singapore quotes, up from $7.63 a tonne on Friday, and its highest since June 2015.

Economic Events: (Times are UK)

* 2pm: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Oct.

* 8:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Bloomberg-compiled Refinery Snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

* Singapore International Energy Week, 1st day of 3, with executives from cos. including Jera, Engie, Siemens, EDF, Osaka Gas and Tellurian are due to speak at Singapore Energy Summit

* North Sea benchmark December loading programs

* Wood Mackenzie's IMO seminar

* Deloitte Oil & Gas Conference in Houston

* EARNINGS: BP, PetroChina, Anadarko

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 479.00 / 481.00

Dec18 - 470.00 / 472.00

Jan19 - 462.25 / 464.25

Feb19 - 455.75 / 457.75

Mar19 - 450.50 / 452.50

Apr19 - 445.50 / 447.50

Q1-19 - 456.00 / 458.00

Q2-19 - 440.00 / 442.00

Q3-19 - 419.25 / 421.75

Q4-19 - 385.25 / 387.75

CAL19 - 428.75 / 431.75

CAL20 - 359.25 / 365.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 485.25 / 487.25

Dec18 - 477.50 / 479.50

Jan19 - 471.00 / 473.00

Feb19 - 465.00 / 467.00

Mar19 - 460.25 / 462.25

Apr19 - 456.00 / 458.00

Q1-19 - 465.50 / 467.50

Q2-19 - 450.75 / 452.75

Q3-19 - 433.00 / 435.50

Q4-19 - 404.75 / 407.25

CAL19 - 441.75 / 444.75

CAL20 - 381.25 / 387.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 447.50 / 449.50

Dec18 - 438.75 / 440.75

Jan19 - 432.50 / 434.50

Feb19 - 427.50 / 429.50

Mar19 - 423.00 / 425.00

Apr19 - 418.50 / 420.50

Q1-19 - 427.75 / 429.75

Q2-19 - 413.75 / 415.75

Q3-19 - 392.50 / 395.00

Q4-19 - 356.50 / 359.00

CAL19 - 401.25 / 404.25

CAL20 - 334.75 / 340.75

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Nov18 - 692.82 / 694.82

Dec18 - 686.22 / 688.22

Jan19 - 683.20 / 685.20

Feb19 - 682.17 / 684.17

Mar19 - 680.64 / 682.64

Apr19 - 680.49 / 682.49

Q1-19 - 682.00 / 684.00

Q2-19 - 679.84 / 681.84

Q3-19 - 682.29 / 684.79

Q4-19 - 685.27 / 688.27

CAL19 - 682.29 / 685.54

Sing GO 10ppm

Nov18 - 92.89 / 93.09

Dec18 - 91.98 / 92.18

Jan19 - 91.55 / 91.75

Feb19 - 91.31 / 91.51

Mar19 - 91.27 / 91.47

Apr19 - 91.24 / 91.44

Q1-19 - 91.37 / 91.57

Q2-19 - 91.25 / 91.45

Q3-19 - 91.43 / 91.63

Q4-19 - 91.64 / 91.84

CAL19 - 91.43 / 91.63

BP  

VPS logo. NE Atlantic ECA will cause significant change to the current fuel mix | Steve Bee, VPS  

The possibility of off-spec issues highlights the continuing need for proactive fuel testing to protect vessels.

Kris Vedat, SmartSea. Smart ships failing to convert data into actionable intelligence, warns SmartSea  

Maritime technology firm claims vessels collect vast amounts of data but lack integration to support decision-making.

Energy Transition Outlook 2026 Hydrogen To 2060 report cover. DNV forecasts 100-fold growth in clean hydrogen by 2060, with China leading expansion  

Classification society projects $3.2tn investment in hydrogen sector, with maritime accounting for 15% of clean hydrogen use.

World Shipping Council logo. Dual-fuel container ship and vehicle carrier fleet surpasses 1,200 vessels  

World Shipping Council reports 65% year-on-year increase in operational dual-fuel vessels to 440 ships.

Sotiris Raptis, ECSA. European Shipowners calls for ETS revenue investment and fuel supplier mandate  

ECSA urges the EU to invest €9bn in annual ETS revenues in fuel production and infrastructure.

Sheen Mao Choong, SSA. Singapore bunker industry urged to prioritise resilience and collaboration  

SSA committee vice chair highlights energy security and crisis readiness at Marine Fuels Forum 2026.

Chia How Khee, TFG Marine and David Foo, MPA. TFG Marine receives bunker safety award from Singapore maritime authority  

Marine fuel supplier recognised for safety standards and operational performance at MPA Marine Fuel Forum.

Rotterdam skyline at night. Bunker surveyor sought in Rotterdam to meet increased demand  

Dutch firm MCE Marine Surveyors is recruiting for a quantitative fuel inspection role.

Emma Roberts, BHP. GCMD highlights BHP biofuel trials to address scaling challenges in maritime decarbonisation  

Mining company discusses need for traceability and coordinated progress across supply, cost and operational readiness.

Levante LNG vessel. Peninsula implements energy efficiency measures across bunker supply fleet  

Marine fuel supplier focusing on data-driven upgrades and operational measures to cut consumption.