Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $77.22 a barrel at 06:25 GMT, down 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close, U.S. WTI crude futures were firmer, at $67.11 a barrel, up 17 cents from their last settlement. A question that is asked a lot of periphery watchers of the oil markets is "What happens next?" Well, ladies and gents, if I had the answer, I sure wouldn't be writing them in a report, I'd be betting my house, my car, my dog, my in-laws all on the outcome and then I'd be able to say 'sayonara' to the early morning London commute. This first question is quickly followed by the second most popular question: "Why is the market going up/down?". The truth is that by the time you have worked out the reasons behind a market movement, it's already too late to do anything about it. For many drivers of day-to-day events, it's not the obvious well-researched fundamentals, but the workings of the financials, who see any neutral time or uncertainty of direction to take profit and wait for the next entry point. None of the fundamental points have changed that much, there's still U.S. sanctions coming into effect next month, still worries about global economy growth, and supply increases in the U.S. and potential for OPEC to turn on the taps. Yet we have had a significant drop over the past two weeks, based on what? Based on the P/L of the funds. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Oct 29)

The front crack opened at -5.95, strengthening to -5.85, before weakening to -6.20. The Cal 19 was valued at -12.75.

Asia's fuel oil market resumed its steady ascent on Monday, with fuel oil cash premiums, front-month time spreads and refining margins climbing to fresh highs, as concerns over near-term supply continued to weigh.

The front-month Singapore 180-centistoke (cSt) fuel oil crack advanced for a fourth straight session and settled at a record high of $1.61 a barrel above Dubai crude oil, Refinitiv data showed.

The 380 cSt fuel oil November/December time spread climbed to $9 a tonne, its highest since end-July and up from $8.50 on Friday, Refinitiv data showed.

Cash premiums for 380 cSt fuel oil cargoes were also bid up to $8.51 a tonne to Singapore quotes, up from $7.63 a tonne on Friday, and its highest since June 2015.

Economic Events: (Times are UK)

* 2pm: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Oct.

* 8:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Bloomberg-compiled Refinery Snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

* Singapore International Energy Week, 1st day of 3, with executives from cos. including Jera, Engie, Siemens, EDF, Osaka Gas and Tellurian are due to speak at Singapore Energy Summit

* North Sea benchmark December loading programs

* Wood Mackenzie's IMO seminar

* Deloitte Oil & Gas Conference in Houston

* EARNINGS: BP, PetroChina, Anadarko

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 479.00 / 481.00

Dec18 - 470.00 / 472.00

Jan19 - 462.25 / 464.25

Feb19 - 455.75 / 457.75

Mar19 - 450.50 / 452.50

Apr19 - 445.50 / 447.50

Q1-19 - 456.00 / 458.00

Q2-19 - 440.00 / 442.00

Q3-19 - 419.25 / 421.75

Q4-19 - 385.25 / 387.75

CAL19 - 428.75 / 431.75

CAL20 - 359.25 / 365.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 485.25 / 487.25

Dec18 - 477.50 / 479.50

Jan19 - 471.00 / 473.00

Feb19 - 465.00 / 467.00

Mar19 - 460.25 / 462.25

Apr19 - 456.00 / 458.00

Q1-19 - 465.50 / 467.50

Q2-19 - 450.75 / 452.75

Q3-19 - 433.00 / 435.50

Q4-19 - 404.75 / 407.25

CAL19 - 441.75 / 444.75

CAL20 - 381.25 / 387.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 447.50 / 449.50

Dec18 - 438.75 / 440.75

Jan19 - 432.50 / 434.50

Feb19 - 427.50 / 429.50

Mar19 - 423.00 / 425.00

Apr19 - 418.50 / 420.50

Q1-19 - 427.75 / 429.75

Q2-19 - 413.75 / 415.75

Q3-19 - 392.50 / 395.00

Q4-19 - 356.50 / 359.00

CAL19 - 401.25 / 404.25

CAL20 - 334.75 / 340.75

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Nov18 - 692.82 / 694.82

Dec18 - 686.22 / 688.22

Jan19 - 683.20 / 685.20

Feb19 - 682.17 / 684.17

Mar19 - 680.64 / 682.64

Apr19 - 680.49 / 682.49

Q1-19 - 682.00 / 684.00

Q2-19 - 679.84 / 681.84

Q3-19 - 682.29 / 684.79

Q4-19 - 685.27 / 688.27

CAL19 - 682.29 / 685.54

Sing GO 10ppm

Nov18 - 92.89 / 93.09

Dec18 - 91.98 / 92.18

Jan19 - 91.55 / 91.75

Feb19 - 91.31 / 91.51

Mar19 - 91.27 / 91.47

Apr19 - 91.24 / 91.44

Q1-19 - 91.37 / 91.57

Q2-19 - 91.25 / 91.45

Q3-19 - 91.43 / 91.63

Q4-19 - 91.64 / 91.84

CAL19 - 91.43 / 91.63