Tue 30 Oct 2018, 09:48 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.


Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)
Commentary

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $77.22 a barrel at 06:25 GMT, down 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close, U.S. WTI crude futures were firmer, at $67.11 a barrel, up 17 cents from their last settlement. A question that is asked a lot of periphery watchers of the oil markets is "What happens next?" Well, ladies and gents, if I had the answer, I sure wouldn't be writing them in a report, I'd be betting my house, my car, my dog, my in-laws all on the outcome and then I'd be able to say 'sayonara' to the early morning London commute. This first question is quickly followed by the second most popular question: "Why is the market going up/down?". The truth is that by the time you have worked out the reasons behind a market movement, it's already too late to do anything about it. For many drivers of day-to-day events, it's not the obvious well-researched fundamentals, but the workings of the financials, who see any neutral time or uncertainty of direction to take profit and wait for the next entry point. None of the fundamental points have changed that much, there's still U.S. sanctions coming into effect next month, still worries about global economy growth, and supply increases in the U.S. and potential for OPEC to turn on the taps. Yet we have had a significant drop over the past two weeks, based on what? Based on the P/L of the funds. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Oct 29)

The front crack opened at -5.95, strengthening to -5.85, before weakening to -6.20. The Cal 19 was valued at -12.75.

Asia's fuel oil market resumed its steady ascent on Monday, with fuel oil cash premiums, front-month time spreads and refining margins climbing to fresh highs, as concerns over near-term supply continued to weigh.

The front-month Singapore 180-centistoke (cSt) fuel oil crack advanced for a fourth straight session and settled at a record high of $1.61 a barrel above Dubai crude oil, Refinitiv data showed.

The 380 cSt fuel oil November/December time spread climbed to $9 a tonne, its highest since end-July and up from $8.50 on Friday, Refinitiv data showed.

Cash premiums for 380 cSt fuel oil cargoes were also bid up to $8.51 a tonne to Singapore quotes, up from $7.63 a tonne on Friday, and its highest since June 2015.

Economic Events: (Times are UK)

* 2pm: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Oct.

* 8:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Bloomberg-compiled Refinery Snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

* Singapore International Energy Week, 1st day of 3, with executives from cos. including Jera, Engie, Siemens, EDF, Osaka Gas and Tellurian are due to speak at Singapore Energy Summit

* North Sea benchmark December loading programs

* Wood Mackenzie's IMO seminar

* Deloitte Oil & Gas Conference in Houston

* EARNINGS: BP, PetroChina, Anadarko

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 479.00 / 481.00

Dec18 - 470.00 / 472.00

Jan19 - 462.25 / 464.25

Feb19 - 455.75 / 457.75

Mar19 - 450.50 / 452.50

Apr19 - 445.50 / 447.50

Q1-19 - 456.00 / 458.00

Q2-19 - 440.00 / 442.00

Q3-19 - 419.25 / 421.75

Q4-19 - 385.25 / 387.75

CAL19 - 428.75 / 431.75

CAL20 - 359.25 / 365.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 485.25 / 487.25

Dec18 - 477.50 / 479.50

Jan19 - 471.00 / 473.00

Feb19 - 465.00 / 467.00

Mar19 - 460.25 / 462.25

Apr19 - 456.00 / 458.00

Q1-19 - 465.50 / 467.50

Q2-19 - 450.75 / 452.75

Q3-19 - 433.00 / 435.50

Q4-19 - 404.75 / 407.25

CAL19 - 441.75 / 444.75

CAL20 - 381.25 / 387.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 447.50 / 449.50

Dec18 - 438.75 / 440.75

Jan19 - 432.50 / 434.50

Feb19 - 427.50 / 429.50

Mar19 - 423.00 / 425.00

Apr19 - 418.50 / 420.50

Q1-19 - 427.75 / 429.75

Q2-19 - 413.75 / 415.75

Q3-19 - 392.50 / 395.00

Q4-19 - 356.50 / 359.00

CAL19 - 401.25 / 404.25

CAL20 - 334.75 / 340.75

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Nov18 - 692.82 / 694.82

Dec18 - 686.22 / 688.22

Jan19 - 683.20 / 685.20

Feb19 - 682.17 / 684.17

Mar19 - 680.64 / 682.64

Apr19 - 680.49 / 682.49

Q1-19 - 682.00 / 684.00

Q2-19 - 679.84 / 681.84

Q3-19 - 682.29 / 684.79

Q4-19 - 685.27 / 688.27

CAL19 - 682.29 / 685.54

Sing GO 10ppm

Nov18 - 92.89 / 93.09

Dec18 - 91.98 / 92.18

Jan19 - 91.55 / 91.75

Feb19 - 91.31 / 91.51

Mar19 - 91.27 / 91.47

Apr19 - 91.24 / 91.44

Q1-19 - 91.37 / 91.57

Q2-19 - 91.25 / 91.45

Q3-19 - 91.43 / 91.63

Q4-19 - 91.64 / 91.84

CAL19 - 91.43 / 91.63

BP  

Fjord1's ferry Bergensfjord. Gasum selected as LNG supplier for Fjord1 ferries on Norway’s west coast  

Long-term agreement covers LNG delivery to ferries operating the Arsvågen–Mortavika route.

Bill Watts, Bernhard Schulte (Singapore) Pte Ltd. Shipping’s fuel transition faces $9 trillion funding gap, Singapore technical talk to hear  

Global merchant fleet said to be ordering alternative-fuel vessels faster than the fuels can be produced.

Rijkswaterstaat Power2Tow R&D phase launch. Netherlands launches R&D phase for electric emergency towing vessels with e-methanol as backup fuel  

Vessels will operate electrically wherever possible, while e-methanol will serve as fuel during emergency towing operations.

KPI OceanConnect Logo. KPI OceanConnect seeks marine fuel trading intern for China desk in Singapore  

Bunker firm is recruiting a bilingual staff member to support its China trading operations.

Philippos Ioulianou, EmissionLink. EmissionLink calls for clarity amid crowded regulatory landscape  

Emissions management firm calls for practical guidance to prevent duplicate carbon costs under overlapping regulatory regimes.

Shell flag. Shell forecasts sevenfold rise in LNG bunkering demand to 27m tonnes by 2035  

Annual LNG outlook projects global demand reaching nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050.

Opening ceremony of VPS Shanghai laboratory. VPS opens Shanghai lab as China’s bunker market expands  

Sixth laboratory added to global network, targeting faster fuel testing for customers in APAC region.

Heinrich Wegener & Sohn Bunkergesellschaft m.b.H. logo. Heinrich Wegener joins Global Ethanol Association  

German family-owned bunker firm joins industry body to support ethanol and methanol adoption.

Keel-laying ceremony of vessel with builder's hull no. CHB2048. Second MSC ultra-large LNG dual-fuel boxship enters dry dock at Zhoushan  

Changhong International's Daishan Base receives 19,000-teu container vessel built for MSC.

175,000-cbm LNG carrier vessel render. Deal signed to build four LNG-fuelled gas carriers  

Quartet of 175,000-cbm LNG vessels destined for Shell charter.