Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude oil futures rose to as much as $83.32 a barrel on Wednesday and were at $83.09 at 0335 GMT, still 36 cents, or 0.4 percent above their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures were up 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $73.44 a barrel. The market is anticipating a quieter week this week as Golden Week begins in China, yet we have already touched four-year highs, and the ridiculous stories of $100/bbl are being written again. We are still a month away from the full impact of the Iranian sanctions to kick in; everyone is currently in panic stations as multiple crises seem to be hitting at a similar time. If I was an analyst, I'm sure I would be getting an inordinate number of phone calls about U.S.-China trade war, U.S.-Iranian sanctions, and 2020 sulphur cap as the top three issues. No matter how much data they throw at you during the conversation, you know that the real answer to the effect on the market is issue 1: lower demand; issue 2: lower supply; issue 3: Who knows?... Good week all.

Fuel Oil Market (Sep 28)

Ex-wharf premium's for 380 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) bunkers for October delivery were little changed from the previous month in a sign of expectation of relatively tight supply and firm demand for the mainstay shipping fuel. October ex-wharf term premiums for 380 cSt HSFO were concluded at about $8-$9 per tonne to Singapore quotes, compared with term premiums of about $7.50-$9.50 per tonne in September

Trafi merges desks: Swiss trading house Trafigura has merged its global fuel oil and gas oil trading desks ahead of new shipping fuel regulations starting in 2020 set by the United Nations' shipping agency, three trade sources said. Trafigura's trading desk merger mirrors a similar move by oil-giant BP, which combined its fuel oil and middle distillates desks about four months ago.

Window Trades: One cargo trade was reported in the Singapore trading window totalling 25,000 tonnes of 180 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO).

P66 sold the 180 cSt HSFO cargo to Mercuria at a $4.25 per

Economic data/events (Times are UK)

* 1:30pm: Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports

* 2:45pm: U.S. Markit Manufacturing, Sept. (final)

* 3pm: U.S. Construction Spending, Aug.

* 3pm: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, Sept.

* Bloomberg OPEC survey on production

* Bloomberg monthly tanker tracking compilations, including for producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, published throughout the day

* World Petroleum Council Meeting, Astana, Kazakhstan, featuring Kazakh Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, Shell Upstream Director Andrew Brown, 1st day of 3

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change; plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillate inventories before Wednesday's EIA weekly inventory report

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 474.75 / 476.75

Dec18 - 469.50 / 471.50

Jan19 - 464.25 / 466.25

Feb19 - 459.25 / 461.25

Mar19 - 454.25 / 456.25

Apr19 - 449.00 / 451.00

Q1-18 - 459.25 / 461.25

Q2-18 - 445.00 / 447.00

Q3-18 - 429.00 / 431.50

Q4-18 - 398.00 / 400.50

CAL19 - 428.00 / 431.00

CAL20 - 353.00 / 359.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 483.25 / 485.25

Dec18 - 478.25 / 480.25

Jan19 - 474.25 / 476.25

Feb19 - 470.50 / 472.50

Mar19 - 466.25 / 468.25

Apr19 - 461.50 / 463.50

Q1-18 - 470.25 / 472.25

Q2-18 - 457.50 / 459.50

Q3-18 - 444.00 / 446.50

Q4-18 - 413.00 / 415.50

CAL19 - 442.50 / 445.50

CAL20 - 376.00 / 382.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 449.50 / 451.50

Dec18 - 444.75 / 446.75

Jan19 - 441.00 / 443.00

Feb19 - 437.75 / 439.75

Mar19 - 434.25 / 436.25

Apr19 - 430.25 / 432.25

Q1-18 - 437.75 / 439.75

Q2-18 - 425.50 / 427.50

Q3-18 - 402.25 / 404.75

Q4-18 - 361.50 / 364.00

CAL19 - 405.50 / 408.50

CAL20 - 338.50 / 344.50